Did South Carolina do enough in win over Clemson to win over CFP selection committee? Maybe, if they forget about losses to Alabama and Ole Miss.
Miami’s loss kept Clemson alive and threw open the door to discussion about a three-loss SEC team entering the field.
Ryan Day’s latest loss to Michigan cast a pall over Ohio State, but maybe a ray of hope still exists.
Let’s play a game of yes, no, maybe so.
In this little exercise, we’ll assess teams’ playoff stock.
Technically, no bids have been awarded, but we don’t need a committee to tell us No. 1 Oregon has earned a spot regardless of what happens in the Big Ten championship game.
The Ducks are more exception than rule, though, by avoiding pitfalls that other contenders kept getting sucked into.
I won’t tell you everyone on this list has earned a playoff spot, in the conventional sense, but playoff expansion combined with a wacky season full of upsets forces us to rewire what a playoff team looks like.
Yes, these teams are playoff bound
Oregon: The only question for the Ducks is whether they’ll be seeded No. 1 or No. 5. A game against Penn State will determine that.
Notre Dame: The Irish used their conference independence to perfection. They took advantage of their soft schedule and will rolll into the playoff red hot after recovering from a Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois. While other playoff teams beat up on each other in conference championship games, Notre Dame enjoys weekend off before a home playoff game.
Texas: Pair Texas winning the SEC with Penn State capturing the Big Ten, and you’d probably get the Longhorns snagging the No. 1 seed. Lose the SEC to Georgia, and the Longhorns would remain a strong candidate to host a first-round playoff game.
Tennessee: Beating Vanderbilt secured a spot for the Vols, and now the only question is whether they’ll be seeded high enough to play a first-round game at home (where they’re quite good) or the road (where they’re vulnerable).
Penn State: Ohio State’s dud against Michigan forced Penn State into the Big Ten championship game, where the Nittany Lions will risk their seed, but not their bid.
Georgia: The Bulldogs nearly lost to Georgia Tech. If they had, this game against Texas would have had the power to eliminate Georgia. As it is, the Bulldogs are safe, regardless of outcome. Uncomfortable with a three-loss SEC runner-up in the playoff? Then shrink the playoff.
Ohio State: It takes a true victim of the moment to think the Buckeyes jeopardized their bid by losing to Michigan, but they damaged their seeding. They’ll probably hover around the No. 8 or No. 9 seed line, which is the difference between hosting in Round 1 versus going on the road.
Indiana: The Hoosiers’ blowout win of Purdue, combined by losses from Miami and Clemson, solidified Indiana’s playoff footing. The No. 10 seed projects as the likeliest landing spot.
Maybe, they’ll be in the CFP bracket
SMU: The committee has been slow to recognize the Mustangs, winners of nine straight, but they can zoom to the No. 3 seed by winning the ACC crown. They still might qualify if they lose to Clemson, but that could depend on how the loss presents. SMU’s best win came against Louisville, casting a bit of doubt on its at-large résumé.
Clemson: The Tigers lost to South Carolina but managed to keep their playoff hopes afloat thanks to Miami’s loss to Syracuse that elevated Clemson into the ACC title game. A loss to SMU would eliminate Clemson. A win would unlock a bid, but likely not a bye.
Arizona State: Win the Big 12 championship, and the Sun Devils are in the playoff and vying for a bye. Lose the Big 12 championship, and it’s off to an also-ran bowl, despite an impressive turnaround season.
Iowa State: See above description for Arizona State. The same applies to the Cyclones.
Boise State: The stakes for Boise State couldn’t be higher. Beating UNLV would not only button up a playoff spot, it would thrust the Broncos into conversation for a bye, while a loss quite likely eliminates them.
UNLV: Upset the Broncos, and UNLV probably heads to the 12-seed. Lose, and that’s that.
Miami: Miami’s utter lack of a defense caught up with it in a loss to Syracuse. With a résumé pinned to victories over Louisville and Duke and losses in two of its last three games, Miami perhaps threw away its playoff bid. That probably depends on how the committee views a 10-2 ACC team compared to a three-loss SEC team.
South Carolina: Unranked in the initial CFP rankings, the Gamecocks stormed to the finish line with a lights-out defense and an improving freshman quarterback, LaNorris Sellers. Beating Clemson gave South Carolina more momentum than either Alabama or Ole Miss, but a bid for the Gamecocks would require the committee to overlook losses to Alabama and Ole Miss.
Alabama: Hard to imagine a three-loss team that lost to Vanderbilt and got trounced by Oklahoma would remain in the mix, but here we are. If strength of schedule and brand bias tip the scales, then Alabama will snag that final spot. Wins against Georgia and South Carolina bedrock Alabama’s case.
Ole Miss: The Rebels’ case nearly parallels that of Alabama: Wins against Georgia and South Carolina are mixed around perplexing losses. The trouble is, the committee valued Alabama ahead of Ole Miss last week, so the Tide seem to have Ole Miss blocked.
No, they’re not making the playoff
Everybody else: The 18 teams listed above account for the remaining playoff contenders. If Tulane hadn’t lost to Memphis on Thursday, you could have made an argument for two Group of Five qualifiers if three-loss Clemson won the ACC, but that avenue closed with Tulane losing on Thanksgiving.
Some closing thoughts in this ‘Topp Rope’ view of college football:
1. The clouds haven’t parted yet in Columbus, Ohio, but if the Buckeyes desire a ray of hope, here’s one: Two years ago, Michigan clubbed Ohio State at the Horseshoe. The next we saw of the Buckeyes, they were a field goal away from upsetting Georgia in the CFP semifinals.
Point being, Ryan Day wilts against Michigan, but he’s pretty good against most everyone else. Of course, that 2022 Michigan team I’m referencing was much better than the squad that beat the Buckeyes on Saturday. Still, there’s only one team in this field that beat OSU, and that loss came by a single point. The Buckeyes are down, but not out.
2. I predict the top 12 of Tuesday’s CFP rankings: 1. Oregon, 2. Texas, 3. Penn State, 4. Notre Dame, 5. Georgia, 6. Ohio State, 7. Tennessee, 8. SMU, 9. Indiana, 10. Boise State, 11. Alabama, 12. South Carolina, 13. Arizona State. First team out: South Carolina, because the Big 12 would claim an auto bid.
3. My latest ‘Topp Rope’ playoff projection: Oregon (Big Ten), Texas (SEC), SMU (ACC), Arizona State (Big 12), Boise State (Group of Five), plus at-large selections Notre Dame, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama. Next up: South Carolina.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. The ‘Topp Rope’ is his football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network. Subscribe to read all of his columns.