NFL mock drafts are, at their core, an exercise in hypotheticals and guesswork. But with the first round now just a month away, some of the latest projections can be a little bit more rooted in reality than editions from a few weeks ago.
With the overwhelming bulk of free agency money already allotted, teams have had to show their hands on at least part of their offseason plans. And while there are still several key figures who could shape the class’ outlook – namely Aaron Rodgers, who visited the Pittsburgh Steelers on Friday and also appears to have the New York Giants on hold – some elements for the early order are falling into place.
Here’s USA TODAY Sports’ latest mock draft projection for the full first round:
1. Tennessee Titans – Cam Ward, QB, Miami (Fla.)
With two weeks having passed since the first free agent deals were reached, Will Levis has only been joined by Brandon Allen on Tennessee’s roster, and the team doesn’t appear to be in the mix for any other quarterbacks who would be seen as a potential bridge starter. That’s left many to conclude that the Titans already have their eyes trained on Ward. While it might be early to declare that outcome a lock, the odds for other possibilities are certainly dwindling. It remains to be seen whether Ward clears the ‘generational talent’ bar that the team has thrown around in reference to the first pick, but the scintillating 6-2, 219-pound passer would certainly give the franchise a distinct sense of direction after Brian Callahan’s first year was a wash.
2. Cleveland Browns – Abdul Carter, DE, Penn State
Myles Garrett stirred some intrigue when he said he had an ‘idea’ of what the team was planning to do at quarterback, leading many to speculate that Shedeur Sanders would be the target. And while establishing some kind of spark behind center might be necessary to ignite this group, bypassing one of the class’ two apparent elite talents would constitute a significant gamble. Pairing Garrett with Carter, the draft’s pre-eminent disruptive force, would be a sensible way to optimize assets early, with a quarterback still potentially in play later on.
3. New York Giants – Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Adding Jameis Winston only highlighted the extent of the Giants’ desperation at quarterback, with at least one other move almost sure to come. If Rodgers decides to sign with New York, using this pick on either Carter or Travis Hunter would be a reasonable move for a regime already put on notice. But if Big Blue has to move even further down its list of desired veteran signal-callers in the coming weeks, taking on Sanders as well might be the only way out of quarterback purgatory.
4. New England Patriots – Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado
With the Giants’ pick shaping up to be the inflection point of the first round, the Patriots are left to ponder whether one of this year’s premier talents will fall into their lap or if they’ll need to pivot to focusing on sizable voids at left tackle and wide receiver. In this case, the former scenario materializes, and New England can prioritize value while sorting out positional matters later – though Hunter surely qualifies as the game-breaking receiver the team has been missing, so long as the team is willing to give him extensive reps there.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars – Mason Graham, DT, Michigan
After making a handful of mid-tier moves in early free agency, first-year general manager James Gladstone is preparing for a youth movement, saying, ‘We’re going to allow these rookies to get a chance to get out on the field and help us this coming fall.’ One area that looks ripe for help through the draft is the defensive line, where Graham could help establish a new tone with his hyperactive pursuit.
6. Las Vegas Raiders – Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
This might be early for McMillan, who could have a fairly wide range of outcomes in the first round given questions about his long speed. But if the Raiders don’t feel comfortable leaving Geno Smith to throw to Brock Bowers and a ragtag receiving corps, McMillan might not have to wait as long on draft day as some envision.
7. New York Jets – Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
Both Aaron Glenn and Darren Mougey know the transformative value offered by a top-notch offensive line after their respective runs with the Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos. Whether running roughshod over defenders or keeping them at bay in the passing game, Membou can step in at right tackle and be a standard-bearer for the new regime.
8. Carolina Panthers – Jalon Walker, LB, Georgia
At 6-1 and 243 pounds, Walker isn’t the prototype for a potential cornerstone of a team’s pass rush. But the Panthers shouldn’t be dissuaded by the Butkus Award winner’s size, as he could represent their best chance at awakening a unit that ranked 31st in ESPN’s pass-rush win rate metric.
9. New Orleans Saints – Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
Trading away Marshon Lattimore and losing Paulson Adebo in free agency has left New Orleans wobbly at cornerback. While a team in significant transition shouldn’t force picks on need alone, Johnson is well worth consideration in this spot as a player who, prior to an injury-marred 2024 campaign, fully looked the part of a longtime No. 1 corner.
10. Chicago Bears – Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Is taking a running back this high a luxury for a team that went 5-12 last season? Maybe. But after transforming the team’s offensive line and bolstering its defensive front, general manager Ryan Poles said the Bears’ spring spending spree ‘really opens the whole board for us.’ Rather than merely be an additive presence, Jeanty could be the kind of figure who helps recalibrate the attack, creating big gains by slipping past would-be tacklers or bouncing off them.
11. San Francisco 49ers – Will Campbell, OT, LSU
A shift away from a roster replete with highly paid veterans creates an onus on general manager John Lynch to bring aboard some new low-cost building blocks. If San Francisco is intent on finding steady ground after a rocky offseason, a natural first step would be turning to Campbell. Savvy and smooth as a blocker, the consensus All-American might end up moving inside due to concerns about his arm length, though he has the tools to hang at tackle – perhaps even as an eventual successor to Trent Williams.
12. Dallas Cowboys – Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
After again treating free agency like a yard sale while other teams operated as though they were at the auction house, Dallas is due for a spark. Golden certainly provides that, with his knack for creating separation making him an enticing asset for Dak Prescott and a Cowboys offense searching for some semblance of a threat beyond CeeDee Lamb.
13. Miami Dolphins – Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas
Miami has already experienced many of the limitations left by its underperforming lines, so allotting early picks up front is imperative for general manager Chris Grier. A natural scheme fit for the Dolphins, Banks could slot in at guard while still providing flexibility if Patrick Paul has trouble taking over at left tackle.
14. Indianapolis Colts – Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
If Warren makes it out of the top 10, this should be his floor. The Colts could surely use a pass catcher who can not only be a safety valve for either Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson but also bail out his quarterback by snagging contested catches or picking up huge chunks of yards after the catch.
15. Atlanta Falcons – Mike Green, DE, Marshall
Perhaps it seems simplistic to address a long dormant pass rush by plugging in the Football Bowl Subdivision leader in sacks. But Green gives something Atlanta has long lacked: a jolt off the edge who can truly create chaos rather than merely clean plays up.
16. Arizona Cardinals – Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
Elevating the talent level of the front seven no longer seems to be such a pressing concern after an offseason highlighted by the signing of Super Bowl 59 standout Josh Sweat. But Monti Ossenfort and Jonathan Gannon still have plenty of reason to be drawn to Campbell, an ascendant talent who would electrify the pass rush early while honing his instincts as an off-ball linebacker.
17. Cincinnati Bengals – Shemar Stewart, DE, Texas A&M
Ponying up to keep Trey Hendrickson is the sensible move for a team that appears to be all in on its current vision following the massive extensions handed out to receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. No matter how the organization chooses to proceed with its remaining disgruntled star, Stewart offers the immense upside that Cincinnati will be eager to capitalize on after a spotty run of early round defensive draft picks in recent years.
18. Seattle Seahawks – Grey Zabel, G/C, North Dakota State
In swapping out Geno Smith for Sam Darnold and replacing DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett with Cooper Kupp, the Seahawks have fully embraced the vision for a Klint Kubiak offense. The next logical step: importing Zabel, who can shore up the pressing deficiency at guard and looks tailor-made for a heavy dose of outside zone runs.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
If there’s one coach who would most appreciate the full scope of Barron’s ability, it’s Todd Bowles. The Buccaneers coach and former NFL defensive back would surely relish the versatility and savvy of the Thorpe Award winner, and Tampa Bay could deploy him in a wide array of different looks and assignments.
20. Denver Broncos – Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Utilizing an early draft pick on a running back is essentially a necessity for the Broncos, who have yet to fulfill Sean Payton’s offseason commitment to ‘stack that position group.’ The biggest question for Denver is whether it sees sufficient value in taking Hampton in the first round or would prefer to pursue a Day 2 alternative. But given how easily the powerful 6-0, 221-pound ball carrier could slide into this ascending attack, it’s easy to see why this will remain a popular projection throughout the pre-draft process.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers – Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi
Though Pittsburgh has managed not to let its shortcomings behind center submarine the team, it still has paid a heavy price for its inability to forge a path forward at quarterback. Dart might be hard-pressed to step in as a Day 1 starter, especially for a playoff-caliber outfit, but he could be an efficient facilitator in Arthur Smith’s scheme if he develops his anticipation and footwork – perhaps behind someone like Aaron Rodgers.
22. Los Angeles Chargers – Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
With Najee Harris and Mekhi Becton joining Jim Harbaugh’s crew, the Bolts appear to be only leaning further into the established identity of the Greg Roman offense. But reuniting with another former Wolverine in Loveland would open things a bit more for Justin Herbert, who surely would stand to benefit from having a much more dynamic downfield threat at tight end than checkdown option Tyler Conklin.
23. Green Bay Packers – Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon
With seemingly no true No. 1 receiver available, the easy call for Green Bay is to focus on creating more disruption on defense. That could point the Packers to Harmon, a versatile force who would allow Brian Gutekunst to comfortably move on from Kenny Clark or Devonte Wyatt if the GM doesn’t want to pay a hefty bill for either defensive tackle in 2026.
24. Minnesota Vikings – Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
After an active and aggressive run in free agency to resolve uncertainties along both lines and in the secondary, Minnesota has enviable flexibility here. Trading back remains a strong option for a team with just four picks, but standing pat could land them Emmanwori, a phenomenal athlete and versatile coverage piece who no doubt would stand to benefit from apprenticing under Harrison Smith.
25. Houston Texans – Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
Yes, the Texans added both Cam Robinson and Trent Brown to provide some relief at offensive tackle after trading Laremy Tansil. But with both veterans on one-year prove-it deals, there’s still no long-term protection plan in place for C.J. Stroud. As Simmons continues to work his way back from a torn patellar tendon suffered in October, he could take a backseat to the more established presences before eventually taking over and becoming the fixture required to settle this front.
26. Los Angeles Rams – Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky
After reconfiguring their pass rush last year by drafting NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse and finalist Braden Fiske, the Rams should be seeking out a similar revitalization of their secondary. Comfortable in both man and zone coverage, the feisty Hairston would accelerate the youth movement on defense.
27. Baltimore Ravens – Donovan Ezeiruaku, OLB, Boston College
Though he’s never one to force a selection based on short-term considerations, Ravens GM Eric DeCosta acknowledged at the combine that ‘having a continuous influx of young pass-rush talent … that’s a priority for us, sure.’ As perhaps the draft class’ most refined edge rusher after notching 16 ½ sacks last season, Ezeiruaku has the requisite tools to enjoy an expedited transition to the NFL if the 6-3, 248-pounder can hold up against bigger and more powerful blockers.
28. Detroit Lions – Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan
Re-signing Levi Onwuzurike to a one-year deal provides a little more clarity for the Lions’ interior, which had a murky outlook as Alim McNeill continues to recover from a torn ACL suffered in December. But Detroit could solidify the spot much more by adding Grant, a 6-4, 331-pound magnet for double teams.
29. Washington Commanders – Mykel Williams, DE, Georgia
Barring a trade for Trey Hendrickson, Washington looks bound to head into the draft in search of a difference-maker on the edge. The 6-5, 265-pound Williams could easily go much higher thanks to his nearly ideal set of physical traits at a position where they’re prized. In this scenario, however, he lands at what should be considered his floor.
30. Buffalo Bills – Azareye’h Thomas, CB, Florida State
While the Bills boast two staples in the secondary thanks to Christian Benford and Taron Johnson, the AFC title game – in which Benford was knocked out with a concussion and since-traded cornerback Kaiir Elam was repeatedly picked on – reinforced the importance of eliminating any weak links. Thomas’ size and physicality in coverage would give Buffalo some peace of mind about matching up in man coverage against the likes of the Chiefs and other AFC powers.
31. Kansas City Chiefs – Walter Nolen, DT, Mississippi
Further investment in the offensive line can’t be entirely ruled out here, but trading Joe Thuney to the Bears and ponying up big for Jaylon Moore might wrap up the team’s offseason plan of drastic action for its biggest vulnerability. Dropping Nolen in next to Chris Jones would ensure opponents will have their hands full with the Chiefs’ interior line for some time.
32. Philadelphia Eagles – Malaki Starks, S, Georgia
Another highly regarded Georgia defender? Why not? If Howie Roseman doesn’t utilize his top draft pick to indulge his obsession with building along the lines, maybe he can make another signature move by upping his defense’s Dawg quotient, which has already been boosted with the signing of Azeez Ojulari.
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