We’re not seeing big picture here. We’re slogging through the minutia of the college football postseason instead of dealing with the big, bad shield in the room.
The NFL shield.
So while college football’s power brokers are busy arguing straight seeding, first-round byes, campus sites and who will choose the expected 16-team College Football Playoff field, they’re ignoring the greatest threat to the ever-evolving system that decided a national champion.
The NFL’s television schedule structure is in direct competition with the College Football Playoff. That means decreased ratings, and decreased growth for a sport trying to develop a new postseason format.
This season alone, critical division matchups between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, fall on the same Saturday as three first-round games.
No matter how important or intriguing those first-round College Football Playoff matchups prove to be, they’ll be dwarfed by critical December NFL games — just like last year’s three first-round games in the same window.
And lost television ratings and growth means lost millions from future media rights deals — the very reason university presidents blew up the original four-team CFP in the first place.
“My hope is there are ways around it,” said Florida State athletic director Mike Alford.
Yeah, well, hope is not a plan. Leverage is.
I’ve said it over and over, and will say it again: college football has leverage on the NFL. College football is the free minor league system for the NFL.
If the NFL wants to keep benefiting from that free system – I don’t think this can be underscored enough, free – it’s time to treat college football as a partner. Not like old gum on the bottom of the NFL sneaker.
There was a time not long ago that college football decided to play games on Thursday night, a unique idea that ESPN turned into a cult following. Sure enough, the NFL saw the success and large television ratings, and commandeered the night.
NFL Thursday night games now dwarf the college football games, so much so, that college football has all but given up on big power conference games and now feeds Thursday night with a steady diet of meaningless Group of Five games.
Two years ago, the NFL sold Thursday Night games as a standalone media rights package to Amazon, and now makes a billion dollars annually from it. Yep, billion.
That’s lost revenue for college football, a sport searching for cash streams while dealing with looming revenue sharing with players. By proxy, it means lost revenue for college sports, which is dealing with a potential loss of Olympic sports teams (both men and women) because cash to support those teams is now used to pay players in revenue producing sports (football, basketball).
Yet here we are, deep into the process of what the new playoff format will look like, and we can’t see the forest for The Shield. The problem isn’t the format, the problem is the NFL.
You know, the same NFL receiving free player development – again, free! – from college football year after year after year.
Anyone else find it odd that college football is swimming in paradigm change over the last four seasons, in danger of the whole thing falling apart, and the NFL has been eerily quiet about the entire mess?
Hasn’t offered support, hasn’t reached out to say, hey, since you’ve given us free player development from the time our game was invented (and will continue to do so), maybe we can hop off the Saturday of your first-round games?
Maybe we can avoid future scheduling conflicts and work with college football to grow the postseason. Instead of ignoring it.
But the NFL has no reason to acquiesce. If college football continues to provide game and practice tape whenever the NFL asks, if it continues to allow access to practice and games and everyone involved in player development during the NFL draft process, why would the NFL change anything?
There are two ways to make the NFL move off its mark: affect its money, or player procurement.
Here, everyone, is where college football has leverage. The NFL wants every piece of information possible on players it drafts, performing its due diligence to avoid multi-million dollar mistakes on investments.
The NCAA or CFP Board of Directors (or whoever is running the damn sport at this point), should send a letter to all 32 NFL teams. No more practice and game access to all FBS and FCS teams, no more game and practice tape, no more access to coaches and assistant coaches or anyone else connected to players — until the NFL eliminates scheduling conflicts with the CFP.
It’s not a big ask, and frankly, there shouldn’t have to be a threat. There should be someone within college football – I nominate Nick Saban, even though he doesn’t want the job – who can call NFL commissioner Roger Goodell and speak hard truths.
The NFL isn’t your friend, it’s the greatest threat to college football’s postseason.
Do something about it.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.