With the NCAA baseball tournament field now whittled down to 16 teams, it’s natural to ask which of the regional champs have the best chance to bring home the title in Omaha, Nebraska, at the end of the month. In all honesty, given that half the national seeds have already been eliminated, your guess is probably as good as ours. Nevertheless, we shall take a stab at ranking the 16 remaining teams.
First and foremost, a few caveats are in order. This ranking is completely unscientific. Poll positions and seeds are taken into account, but recent performance and historic postseason success are also factors considered. Home field in the upcoming super regional round is an edge, but it’s anything but a guarantee of success as we’ve already seen in this tournament. With all that out of the way then, here’s how we rank the 16 survivors.
No. 1 Arkansas
Is this finally the Razorbacks’ year? Arkansas was a win away in 2018 but has yet to claim a national championship. In addition to being the highest-seeded team still in the tournament, this year’s squad would appear to have the necessary combination of pitching depth and timely hitting for a long stay should it make it to Omaha. But the Hogs have a tough assignment against the defending champion Volunteers.
No. 2 North Carolina
The Tar Heels look to have the best position of the ACC’s sizable five-team contingent in the round of 16 after getting past Oklahoma in an elimination game to advance. UNC is also seeking its first title, but Gavin Gallaher has been on an absolute tear at the plate in the postseason, and Jake Knapp is a true staff ace.
No. 3 Auburn
The Tigers rebounded in a big way from a subpar 2024 campaign thanks to a significant roster overhaul. They swept their regional while several of their SEC brethren weren’t nearly as successful, and now they seek a return trip to Omaha after a two-year absence. Their last obstacle, however, is significant (see below).
No. 4 Tennessee
The Volunteers weren’t the most consistent bunch in SEC play this season, particularly in the latter half of the campaign. The offense gets a lot of the headlines but there are enough arms to weather what should be an electric atmosphere at Arkansas. They’ve had success against the Razorbacks before, and if they find a way to reach Omaha they’d have a solid chance to repeat.
No. 5 LSU
Though the Bayou Bengals had to work a little harder than expected to get past a pesky group of Trojans from Little Rock, they’d be a popular choice to add to their seven championship banners if they reach the College World Series. LSU isn’t as reliant on offense as years past with Anthony Eyanson and Kade Anderson giving the pitching staff two elite starting options.
No. 6 Oregon State
Perhaps it was the shock of losing to Saint Mary’s in the opener last week, but the Beavers’ bats woke up in time for them to avoid elimination in their home park. It won’t hurt that they get to stay in Corvallis while their opponent must travel across the continent, but maintaining the hit parade against Florida State’s accomplished hurlers will be a challenge.
No. 7 Louisville
After sweeping their regional that included top overall seed Vanderbilt, the Cardinals can’t be counted out. Their matchup against Miami guarantees at least one ACC squad will be represented next week at the CWS, though Louisville did not encounter the Hurricanes during the regular season.
No. 8 UCLA
The Bruins broke through for their first baseball title in 2013. Somewhat surprisingly, they haven’t been back to Omaha since. This year’s group is happy to be home after accumulating many more travel miles in its first Big Ten season. Balance is a big part of their success with excellent defense supporting a solid hitting and pitching group.
No. 9 Florida State
As long-time Seminoles’ fans are well aware, getting to Omaha has not been the issue. They’ve been there 24 times without a title. But first things first, as they’ll need to win a series on the west coast before dealing with the inevitable questions about all the years of CWS futility. Starting pitchers Jamie Arnold and Joey Volini will be asked to lead the way in slowing down Oregon State.
No. 10 Coastal Carolina
We admit we might have the Chanticleers too low here. They rank second in ERA (3.22), which certainly gives them a chance to cool Auburn’s hot bats. The offensive firepower in the Sun Belt top to bottom doesn’t match the SEC, of course, but Coastal faced its share of major conference competition during the season as well. The offense relies less on the long ball than manufacturing runs.
No. 11 Duke
Even Duke’s meager College World Series history comprising three appearances, the most recent in 1961, is more than that of its opponent this weekend. We’ll say this much – the Blue Devils’ series against Murray State should be quite entertaining, especially if you like to see a lot of runs scored.
No. 12 Arizona
The Wildcats flew under the radar a bit this season as they negotiated their new conference, but they still won the Big 12 tournament and got through regionals – albeit with the benefit of not facing host Oregon. There’s no shortage of history in the program that claims four national championships, but this group has a difficult road assignment in Chapel Hill.
No. 13 Texas-San Antonio
The Roadrunners are sailing in uncharted waters. But now that they’ve cracked the super regionals for the first time – at the expense of their state’s flagship school no less – they won’t be bothered by the increasingly bigger stage. UTSA has scored more runs than any of the remaining 16 teams, so their bats should provide a test for UCLA’s solid pitching staff.
No. 14 West Virginia
‘No lead is safe’ might be a cliché, but it definitely applies to this scrappy bunch of Mountaineers after thrilling comeback victories against Clemson and Kentucky that got them through their regional in three games. They also perform well away from Morgantown, but overcoming the home environs in Baton Rouge will still be a major challenge.
No. 15 Miami (Fla.)
The Hurricanes are arguably the shakiest of the handful of ACC squads to reach this point even thought they worked their way through both Alabama and Southern Mississippi for their first super regional since 2016. As mentioned above, they did not meet Louisville earlier, though their results against the conference’s upper tier would suggest winning twice on the road is a tall order.
No. 16 Murray State
Perhaps we should pay more attention to the Missouri Valley tournament on an annual basis. The Racers’ run through Mississippi’s regional means an MVC squad has reached the super regionals in four of the last five seasons. Murray State will undoubtedly have to continue its high run production to keep up with Duke, but the Racers will enjoy the ride regardless.