Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer’s midseason hand injury presents a new challenge for the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The committee must decide how to weigh potential Oklahoma losses without its starting quarterback against a difficult schedule.
With Mateer, Oklahoma is considered a top SEC contender, but the team’s strength is uncertain with backup Michael Hawkins Jr.
There’s no avoiding it now. This is the very reason for their existence.
Now how does the College Football Playoff selection committee deal with it?
How does the group of 13 men and women, whose purpose is to analyze games played and injuries to important players, deal with its first significant midseason injury scenario?
Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer broke a bone in his throwing hand two weeks ago, and more than likely won’t play Saturday against bitter rival Texas in the Red River Rivalry.
The obvious question: How would a September injury impact No. 6 Oklahoma’s status with the committee that chooses the 12-team field?
“I don’t know when John will be back,” Oklahoma coach Brent Venables said Monday.
And that’s the problem. With Mateer, Oklahoma is as good as any team in the SEC. Without him, and with backup Michael Hawkins Jr. leading the way through the teeth of a brutal schedule, things drastically change.
OU plays six of its final seven games against teams ranked in the US LBM Coaches poll, and the one team that isn’t ranked (South Carolina) is a dangerous out in its home stadium. And this leads us back to the CFP selection committee, whose first poll of the season is released Nov. 4.
Their job is to see and embrace injury scenarios, and adjust to the subtleties accordingly. To see beyond simple wins and losses, and dive deep into the what if.
In the perfectly imperfect sport of arguing, there is no more important purpose. The committee isn’t around to rubber-stamp blueblood programs, or one-loss teams ahead of two-loss teams.
It was built, more than anything, in the spirit of the overarching question that makes the sport so unique. The what if.
What if Oklahoma loses once or twice without Mateer, and then once again with him against a brutal schedule? Are those Oklahoma losses viewed differently, or the same?
Does a three-loss Oklahoma (two without Mateer playing) get the benefit of the doubt over a two-loss team? Can the committee — or better yet, will the committee — see beyond losses, and into what could’ve been?
“Every week is a clean slate,” CFP executive director Rich Clark said. “There are different factors every week that change the way teams are viewed.”
But nothing like this. In the 11 previous seasons of the CFP, the committee had to deal with two significant injuries — both in the final two weeks of the regular season, and both with real-time metrics.
In 2014, Ohio State quarterback JT Barrett sustained a season-ending injury on the last weekend of the regular season, and backup Cardale Jones threw for 259 yards and three touchdowns the following week in a 59-0 rout of No. 13 Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game.
Two years ago, Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis sustained a season-ending injury in Week 10, and the unbeaten Seminoles played two games without him: a 24-15 win over six-loss Florida, and a 16-6 win over Louisville in the ACC championship game.
Both times, the committee made the decision based on what played out in a small sample size. Ohio State made the CFP, and won it all.
FSU failed to make the CFP, and the Noles — with a roster depleted from opt-outs — lost by 60 to Georgia in the Orange Bowl.
This time around, there will be nearly two months of games, and a clear idea of what Oklahoma is with Mateer, and what it is without him. There will be a clear resume, and the ability for the selection committee to judge based on the complete team.
Make no mistake, OU can’t lose more than three games. One loss without Mateer is understandable, two is stretching it.
At some point, the staff has to figure out how to win games without him.
OU beat Kent State 44-0 last week in its first game without Mateer, and Hawkins played well against an overmatched Group of Five school. Desperate Texas, with its season slipping away after losing to Florida last weekend, is a completely different animal.
When the Sooners arrive at the Cotton Bowl on Saturday, Mateer will be 17 days post-surgery (Sept. 24). More than two weeks from the first four games of the season, when he accounted for 99% of the pass game and 38% of the run game.
And 11 of OU’s 15 offensive touchdowns (six pass, five run).
Late last week, as the Sooners prepared for their first game this season with Hawkins as the starter, Mateer asked Venables if he could dress for the Kent State game. He wasn’t ready to play, but you better believe he was going to be on that sideline.
So he stood there in his Crimson and Cream, with a black brace around his hand and wrist, and watched Hawkins try to steady the ship.
“There’s a lot of guys, they’d just rather stay at the house,” Venables said. “They’re worried about what they’re going to wear, having a fashion show.”
The show is just beginning for the CFP selection committee.
Do they judge Oklahoma based on the star, or his understudy?
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattaHayesCFB.