USC’s top-ranked offense faces a critical test against No. 15 Michigan, which could determine its playoff chances.
Oklahoma may face rival Texas without their starting quarterback, putting pressure on their top-ranked defense.
The matchup between No. 2 Oregon and No. 7 Indiana features two elite quarterbacks and could have major playoff implications.
The best offense in college football. One of the worst defenses in the Big Ten. On paper, very little has changed for Southern California.
The Trojans are averaging a Bowl Subdivision-best 8.5 yards per play. They rank fifth nationally in yards per carry. The passing game is one of three in the Power Four with at least 150 attempts and fewer than two interceptions.
But the defense ranks 82nd in the country in yards allowed per play even after opening the year against Missouri State and Georgia Southern. USC is allowing 6.5 yards per play and 27.3 points per game in three Big Ten matchups.
What could be a make-or-break year for coach Lincoln Riley hits a tipping point against No. 15 Michigan, the sort of physical, in-the-box opponent that has been the Trojans’ kryptonite since joining the Big Ten last season.
A year ago, the Wolverines ran for 290 yards and won by a field goal. Two games later, Minnesota went for 193 yards on the ground in an upset. Notre Dame had 258 yards on 6.8 yards per carry in taking the season finale.
Beating the Wolverines would offset a last-second loss to No. 17 Illinois and put USC on track for College Football Playoff contention heading into a second-half slate that includes road trips against No. 16 Notre Dame and No. 2 Oregon along with matchups against Nebraska and Iowa,
And given what’s to come in Big Ten play, a loss would essentially end the Trojans’ playoff quest, transforming the second half of the regular season into a referendum on Riley’s leadership of the program.
That puts USC front and center in the USA TODAY Sports preview of the team, game, coach and quarterback facing the most pressure in Week 7 of the regular season:
Team: Oklahoma
That the playoff selection committee is instructed to weigh injuries to key players “that may have affected a team’s performance” is a key factor behind the Red River Rivalry between No. 6 Oklahoma and Texas.
The Sooners may take on slumping Texas without quarterback John Mateer, who is questionable after surgery on his hand that was injure the team’s win against Auburn.
In his place would be Michael Hawkins Jr., who had 195 yards of offense and three passing touchdowns as the starter in last weekend’s shutout of Kent State. While Hawkins is a very serviceable backup – a rare and truly valuable commodity in the transfer-portal era – the offense clearly operates at a different frequency with Mateer under center.
And that’s the catch heading into the Cotton Bowl. Down the road, a loss to Texas could be minimized by a committee that evaluates the Sooners as two different teams: one that excelled with Mateer and one that struggled without.
But that argument only comes into play if Oklahoma has the end-of-year record to earn a place in the at-large playoff conversation.
At the very minimum, losing to the Longhorns would demand the Sooners go no worse than 4-2 against a schedule that brings No. 4 Mississippi, No. 11 LSU and No. 14 Missouri to Norman and sends the Sooners to No. 8 Alabama, No. 12 Tennessee and South Carolina.
One thing to keep in mind when assessing this matchup is the play of Oklahoma’s defense. With coach Brent Venables calling plays, the Sooners top the FBS in allowing just 193 per game and 3.5 yards per play. This group could make life miserable for Arch Manning and carry Hawkins and this offense across the finish line.
Game: No. 2 Oregon at No. 7 Indiana
This will be a matchup of elite quarterbacks: Dante Moore is the current Heisman Trophy leader for Oregon, a spot or two ahead of the Hoosiers’ Fernando Mendoza.
The two passers lead two elite offenses. Indiana ranks seventh nationally in yards per play and Oregon eighth. Indiana is fourth in scoring and Oregon sixth; the two teams are averaging a combined 94.4 points per game.
And the defenses aren’t bad, either. The Hoosiers are fifth in the country in yards given up per game and the Ducks rank seventh.
The picture is clear: These are two of the best teams in college football and this is one of the top matchups of the regular season.
The winner is on a downhill run to the playoff. Neither team faces another opponent ranked in this week’s US LBM Coaches Poll, though the Ducks have to travel to Iowa and Washington. On paper, the Hoosiers’ toughest test might be a trip to Penn State in early November.
Coach: Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri
After a relatively easy five-game stretch to get started, Missouri’s season kicks into high gear against No. 8 Alabama, the first of four games against SEC teams ranked in the Coaches Poll. The Tigers are as much of any unknown as any unbeaten team in the country; that’ll change after this weekend.
Drinkwitz has seen his stock rise thanks to a 26-5 mark since the start of the 2023 season. This year’s strong beginning has moved him near the top of the list for Florida’s projected opening, should the axe ever fall on Billy Napier.
But one negative mark on an otherwise strong résumé has been struggles against Top 25 competition. Drinkwitz is 7-14 in games against ranked teams, including an 0-3 mark against ranked SEC opponents last season.
The Crimson Tide won 34-0 at Bryant-Denny Stadium and are 5-0 in the series since the Tigers joined the conference. The Tide have scored at least 34 points in all five wins and won each game by at least 19 points.
Quarterback: Arch Manning, Texas
Things will get very ugly for Texas and Manning should he come up short in a rivalry loss to the Sooners.
There are several reasons to think he’ll struggle in this matchup. The first is an Oklahoma defense that has been particularly dominant against the pass. The Sooners are giving up just 4.8 yards per attempt and did a number on Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, allowing him to hit on just 37.5% of his attempts in the non-conference win.
An even bigger issue has been the disjointed play of an offense that has been terrible against Power Four teams. After scoring just one touchdown in the opener against No. 1 Ohio State, the Longhorns ran for just 52 yards in last weekend’s loss to Florida.
A quarterback change isn’t really an option for Steve Sarkisian. While backup Matthew Caldwell was the primary starter at Troy last season and had a nice completion in his one attempt against the Gators, he doesn’t have the skill set to represent an upgrade over Manning.
That it’s Manning or bust increases the intensely unique pressures already heaped on the redshirt sophomore. Beating the Sooners could help salvage what is shaping up to be a lost season. But a loss could make things very difficult in the second half for Manning and the Longhorns given their massive preseason expectations.