Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon are currently positioned as strong playoff contenders from the conference.
Key upcoming games include USC at Notre Dame, Nebraska at Penn State, and Ohio State at Michigan.
At least three Big Ten teams are expected to make the 12-team College Football Playoff field.
Things are about to get very serious in the Big Ten.
The first half of the college football is in the books. Penn State is out of the mix. Wisconsin is terrible. No. 1 Ohio State is intimidating. No. 3 Indiana looks unbeatable.
The second half of the regular season will decide which teams meet to decide the conference championship and which Big Ten teams make the College Football Playoff.
For now, the Buckeyes, Hoosiers and No. 9 Oregon look like playoff locks. The second tier of contenders include No. 21 Southern California, Michigan, Nebraska and Illinois.
The expectation is that at least three and as many as four Big Ten teams make the 12-team field. Four made last year’s bracket in the Buckeyes, Hoosiers, Ducks and Nittany Lions.
These games will shape the Big Ten race in the second half and help clean up an unsettled playoff race:
Southern California at No. 15 Notre Dame, Oct. 18
After beating Michigan to break into the US LBM Coaches Poll, the Trojans take on another big test against the red-hot Fighting Irish. USC could lose this game and still make the playoff as an at-large team, or even rally in Big Ten play to reach the conference championship game. What happens in South Bend will show whether the Trojans have what it takes.
UCLA at Indiana, Oct. 25
This is looking like Indiana’s biggest test the rest of the way, underscoring how the Hoosiers might have the best playoff odds of any team in the Power Four. UCLA has turned a corner since firing Deshaun Foster and clearly found an offensive identity. Will that be enough to score a mammoth upset?
Southern California at Nebraska, Nov. 1
One-loss Nebraska is hanging around the playoff race in Matt Rhule’s third season. A close win against Maryland shows how thin the margin of error is for a team that has improved dramatically under Rhule but isn’t quite a finished product. Beating USC would provide some national respect and set up the possibility of a 10-win regular season.
Nebraska at Penn State, Nov. 22
This might be awkward. A former Penn State linebacker, Rhule was immediately floated as James Franklin’s successor due to his ties to the program and deep connection with Nittany Lions athletics director Pat Kraft. It’s possible that Rhule will have made a public commitment to Nebraska before this road trip. If not, though, and if the Cornhuskers are surging in the Top 25, this matchup will be one of the most storyline-heavy of the second half.
Oregon at Washington, Nov. 29
The Ducks should be in firm position for an at-large playoff bid and even the Big Ten title game before the trip to Seattle. If not, though — let’s say they slip and fall at Iowa or the week prior against USC — this could be a winner-take-all matchup that determines much more than just bragging rights.
Ohio State at Michigan, Nov. 29
Can the Buckeyes finally crack Michigan’s code? The Buckeyes seem better equipped to handle the Wolverines thanks to an elite defense that ranks near the top of the country in every major category. And by this point in the year, the Julian Sayin-led offense could be the best in the conference.