The College Football Playoff bubble is getting awfully crowded.
Five CFP qualifiers from the SEC? That’s no longshot.
Oklahoma upset of Alabama shakes up projected bracket.
Here’s a little secret. The College Football Playoff rankings are mostly just the Bowl Championship Series, with a human face. A calculation of how the BCS rankings would have looked last week showed near identical alignment with the latest CFP rankings.
But, hey, if we still used the BCS, whom would ESPN’s Rece Davis talk to on Tuesday nights?
Oklahoma beating Alabama crowded the playoff bubble. At one point, after Texas established an early lead on Georgia, the possibility of seven SEC teams with at least 10 wins remained in play. Texas, though, wilted in what become its third loss, a result the committee probably privately welcomed.
Here’s my latest playoff bracket projection. Note: This is not a prediction of how this week’s rankings will look. It’s also not a modeling of how the bracket would look if the season ended today. Rather, I’m projecting forward. This reflects how I think the selections will look come selection Sunday in December.
1. Ohio State (Big Ten)
You could be forgiven for not tuning in much to Ohio State’s season. The Buckeyes’ consistently vast superiority over their unremarkable schedule makes for an unrelenting string of blowouts. Here’s the CliffsNotes: Good everywhere, great at wide receiver.
2. Texas A&M (SEC)
Everything that could go wrong did for Texas A&M in the first half against South Carolina. That made the comeback all the more remarkable. Every team other than Ohio State has played at least one clunker. The Aggies survived theirs.
3. Indiana (at-large)
Indiana (and Wisconsin) have reached such points that a 31-7 Hoosiers triumph came off as tame and expected. Fernando Mendoza enhanced his Heisman Trophy candidacy. The Big Ten season has mostly become a sleepy charade until the Ohio State-Indiana clash we deserve in Indianapolis.
4. Texas Tech (Big 12)
If the Red Raiders smush their next two opponents and win the Big 12 championship, they’ll have earned a bye. He won’t win the award, but some outside-the-box Heisman voters should find a ballot spot for Jacob Rodriguez. The Texas Tech linebacker reached 100 tackles serving as the fulcrum of a nasty defense.
5. Georgia (at-large)
Kirby Smart must be loving this. A third-place SEC finish would unlock prime real estate. The Bulldogs could rest up conference championship weekend, then host a first-round playoff tuneup against the Group of Five qualifier. Georgia’s coach also must be loving the performance of his offense, which he compared to an anaconda squeezing the life out of prey.
6. Mississippi (at-large)
Lane Kiffin’s ongoing stay-or-go saga hasn’t interfered with the team’s performance. No matter what Kiffin chooses, Ole Miss should savor this ride. Defensive liabilities keep the Rebels from being a top-shelf national title contender, but the offense is so good Ole Miss can win a playoff game, and perhaps more than one.
7. Oregon (at-large)
Here’s a CFP chaos scenario: What if two-loss Southern California beats Oregon? Is there room for a fourth Big Ten qualifier? Perhaps not. The committee wouldn’t admit this, but they’ll be quietly quacking next weekend, because a Ducks win would make their job easier. Oregon is good enough to oblige.
8. Oklahoma (at-large)
Turnovers are football’s version of the 3-point jumper. They’re the great equalizer. The yardage stats say Oklahoma had no business beating Alabama, but credit the Sooners for forcing four turnovers. In a bracket that will be loaded with great offenses, Oklahoma would field one of the stingiest defenses.
9. Notre Dame (at-large)
Heisman ballots contain three spots. That’s enough room for Jeremiyah Love to collect some votes as the nation’s best tailback. Love’s filthy spin move against Pittsburgh negated the need for any Heisman pose. He has our attention. Too bad for the selection committee it can’t award Notre Dame an auto bid as a de facto ACC team. Too bad for the Irish they won’t likely face an ACC team in the playoff.
10. Alabama (at-large)
Alabama’s September win at Georgia should lift it into the playoff even if the Tide suffered a third loss in the SEC Championship game. Just don’t lose the Iron Bowl. Alabama isn’t dominant in any particular area, and the Tide need Ty Simpson at his best. He wasn’t in the loss to Oklahoma.
11. Georgia Tech (ACC)
The Yellow Jackets’ signature win against Clemson lost gravitas after the Tigers withered, but they don’t need a statement result so long as they beat Pittsburgh and then win the ACC Championship. Georgia Tech’s grit has allowed it to stay a step ahead of the ACC’s riff-raff.
12. Tulane (Group of Five)
We could have a worthy debate of whether guaranteeing a Group of Five bid in a 12-team playoff is a flaw that needs remedied, but if the American is to have a spot, let it be Tulane. The Green Wave played three Power Four opponents and beat two. It possesses the best G5 resume. Now, it needs to survive the American’s battle royale.
Dropping out from last week’s projection: Vanderbilt, SMU, South Florida.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
When do CFP rankings come out?
The rankings are released on ESPN at 8:30 p.m., Tuesday, Nov. 18