If the Big 12 becomes a two-bid conference for the CFP bracket, then it might be adios for Alabama. Yes, really.
Alabama must win out to be guaranteed a playoff spot. Even making SEC Championship might not be enough.
BYU is perhaps biggest threat to Alabama’s playoff spot. Go figure.
Alabama fell out of favor with the College Football Playoff selection committee and is suddenly vulnerable to missing the playoff entirely if it reaches the SEC Championship game but loses in Atlanta.
That’s right, the SEC runner-up could be rejected from the CFP bracket, while the conference’s third-, fourth- and fifth-place teams make the field.
Yes, I’m serious, and it wouldn’t take anything all that crazy for it to happen. It could just take Brigham Young beating Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship.
Just like that, the Big 12 would move into position to become a two-bid league. Just like that, the SEC’s runner-up makes reservations for the Citrus Bowl.
What a crazy sport.
Next thing you know, SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey’s reviving that old idea of an SEC-only playoff.
How BYU could knock Alabama out of CFP bracket
Follow along, as we unpack this wild, wild twist. Alabama tumbled six spots to No. 10 in the CFP rankings after a two-point loss at home to Oklahoma, a team the committee values enough to rank No. 8.
Alabama is safe for now, but slip even one spot to No. 11, and the Tide would be in danger of missing the playoff. Why? Because, the ACC and Group of Five qualifiers will snatch up two spots via automatic bids, even though they’re likely to be ranked behind Alabama.
In other words, to be safe for an at-large bid, a team needs to be ranked inside the top 10.
The committee almost certainly would prefer to avoid booting Alabama after a loss in the SEC Championship, but if No. 11 BYU reaches the Big 12 Championship and avenges its only loss by upsetting No. 5 Texas Tech, the committee could be left with little choice.
BYU, as the Big 12 champion, would move up in the rankings and be guaranteed a spot with an auto bid. Texas Tech already beat BYU in the regular season. If both the Red Raiders and Crimson Tide lost in conference championship games, there would be little justification to move Alabama ahead of Texas Tech.
So, stay with me, BYU snags a bid, Texas Tech stays ahead of the Tide and grabs an at-large bid, and it’s adios, Alabama, which touts one of the nation’s most robust schedules.
Florida State loss an anchor for Alabama
How would the committee justify booting Bama? By blaming Florida State. Although not specifically listed among selection criteria, this committee is keeping tally of bad losses.
Alabama getting smushed by the Seminoles in the season opener in Tallahassee lingers on the committee’s brain.
Don’t take my word for it.
“Notre Dame has two losses to teams that are within the top 13,” Yurachek said, referencing the Irish’s three-point loss to Miami and one-point loss to undefeated Texas A&M.
“Alabama obviously has the two-point loss at home last week to Oklahoma, but they have that loss, 31-17, at the beginning of the season at Florida State, a team that’s now 5-5. Florida State was up in that game 24-7.”
Considering this committee values good losses so greatly — it’s a key reason Yurachek says the Irish are four spots ahead of Miami, which beat Notre Dame — maybe Alabama could climb in the rankings by securing a good loss in the SEC Championship.
I’m being facetious. Or, maybe I’m not.
The committee has never selected a three-loss team for an at-large bid. Alabama has a chance to become the first. If Texas Tech wins its conference championship and keeps the Big 12 as a one-bid league, Alabama probably would be the first.
Or, Alabama has a chance to become the poster child for why playing and losing in a conference championship game is a booby trap.
Blake Toppmeyer is USA TODAY’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.