No. 24 Tulane was there. James Madison was not.
The takeaway is clear: While the class of the Sun Belt, the Dukes are virtually guaranteed to fall short of the Group of Five’s automatic bid to the College Football Playoff.
Based on the third rankings of the season, James Madison could sweep through the rest of the regular season, finishing 12-1 with only a loss to Louisville, but still miss the bracket.
In the end, the difference will be in the résumé the Dukes will bring to the table in the final playoff rankings. Even if they win out, there’s no realistic avenue to the bracket barring a chaotic close to the American season that results in a three-loss conference champion.
Why James Madison won’t make the playoff
The reasoning is simple: JMU won’t have the wins to come in ahead of a one- or two-loss American champion.
The one loss is a good one, even if the Cardinals have dropped two in a row and are no longer in contention for the ACC crown or an at-large playoff bid.
But with Sun Belt lacking it usual quality, James Madison lacks the type of wins that tend to impress the selection committee. The Dukes’ best win, against Old Dominion, doubles as their only victory against an opponent currently holding a winning record.
They have another two wins against teams with non-losing records in Georgia Southern and Marshall, but the Dukes’ remaining six wins are meaningless: Weber State, Liberty, Georgia State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Texas State and Appalachian State. Weber State is tied for last place in the Big Sky Conference and the five Bowl Subdivision opponents are a combined 17-33.
Compare this to the résumés of the four American teams with just one league loss.
Navy has a win against South Florida and can add another marquee win next Friday against Memphis. East Carolina beat Memphis and routed Coastal Carolina, the second-place team behind James Madison in the Sun Belt East division.
Tulane has wins against Northwestern, Duke, East Carolina and Memphis. Even North Texas, which has the weakest résumé of this group, owns a win against Navy and scored a 59-10 win against Washington State, the next opponent for the Dukes.
Remember that one of these teams will hold the ultimate trump card: a win against one of the top two teams in the American for the conference championship. In comparison, JMU is poised to play for the Sun Belt crown against Southern Mississippi, which just lost by 27 points to a Texas State team that was previously winless in league play.
How does James Madison make the playoff?
There’s a path for JMU to earn the Group of Five’s automatic bid to the tournament.
First, run the table against Washington State, Coastal Carolina and the winner of the West division — and do so with some style, too.
Next, have the American front-runners bellyflop through the finish of the regular season. If we’re being realistic, that would entail some combination of the following:
Navy loses to Memphis for a second conference loss and third overall.
Tulane is stunned by Temple for a second conference loss and third overall.
North Texas also loses to the Owls, joining an earlier loss to South Florida.
East Carolina beats Texas-San Antonio and Florida Atlantic to head into December at 9-3 overall and 7-1 in the American.
In this scenario, ECU would meet one of South Florida, Navy, North Texas or Tulane, with the Pirates’ opponent likely determined by composite computer rankings.
Come the first Sunday of December, JMU would be sitting pretty at 12-1 while the American champion would have two conference losses and could have three losses overall. That would give the Dukes the best chance of getting into the field as the No. 12 seed. It would be a tough needle to thread, but it is a chance.