Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama are just two of the NBA’s stars missing games due to injuries, a problem that appears to be worsening.
Players are running faster and farther than ever before, putting additional strain on their bodies.
Teams may be taking a more cautious approach, resting players with minor injuries to prevent more serious ones.
It was early in the season, but Giannis Antetokounmpo was playing MVP-caliber basketball. Victor Wembanyama, too.
Yet, Antetokounmpo tweaked his groin and Wembanyama strained his calf, and both their teams, the Milwaukee Bucks and San Antoino Spurs, played their respective games Thursday night without them.
Antetokounmpo and Wembanyama are just two of the NBA’s stars suffering time lost to injury, a problem that appears to be worsening. Names like Anthony Edwards, Ja Morant, Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis have also littered the list and point to a larger question: does the NBA have an injury problem, and what might be causing it?
Much like the discussion around Achilles ruptures, the dominant causes for this rash of injuries appear to be multi-factorial and tough to pin down. In conversations with people around the league, however, speed and pace are mentioned most often, though the reality is likely more nuanced.
Physiques have changed over the past few decades, with players bulking muscle and shedding body fat with an emphasis on speed. This, coupled with the constant and abrupt starting and stopping of explosive movements may be putting extra strain on muscles and tendons.
Furthermore, the prototype for forwards and centers has changed; they’re being asked to handle the ball and push transition, to stretch the floor with perimeter shooting. Essentially, they’re being asked to play like guards in the bodies of bigs.
And coaches, by and large, have determined that fast break points are the easiest way to gain an edge.
“I’m very concerned,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said Tuesday, Nov. 19. “It’s dramatic, the pace difference is dramatic. I think across the league, everybody understands now it’s just easier to score if you beat the opponent down the floor, get out in transition. But when everybody is doing that, the game is much higher-paced, and everyone has to cover out to 25 feet because everybody can shoot 3s.
“We have all the data: players are running faster and further than ever before, so we’re trying to do the best we can to protect them, but we basically have a game every other night and it’s not an easy thing to do.”
Kerr added that the Warriors training staff believes the cumulative wear and tear, pace and the speed at which players are moving all factor in to this rash of injuries across the NBA.
Pace, distance, weight all play a role
The rise in pace, or possessions per 48 minutes, is often blamed as the primary cause for injuries, though this needs more context.
It’s true that pace has been steadily increasing since the record lows of the late 1990s (88.9; set in 1998-99). Yet, the pace in the modern game is nowhere near record highs.
Through Wednesday’s games, NBA games were averaging a pace of 100.5, which is up notably over last season (98.8), but comparable to the 2019-20 season (100.3), which concluded in the bubble in Orlando.
Yet, this season does not come close to touching the league’s record pace, which was an absurd 127.7, set in 1960-61 – a season in which there were 79 games played.
In fact, from 1956 through 1973, the average pace in NBA never dipped below 110.
One significant difference from that record 1960-61 season, however, is that the average player weight has increased in the modern NBA.
The other issue is distance traveled and speed. Though the NBA’s tracking data on both spans back to only the 2013-14 season, players are traveling more distance and at faster speeds than ever recorded.
According to NBA data, entering Tuesday night’s games, players were moving at an average speed of 4.43 miles per hour and each game was seeing players travel an average of 34.3 miles – the highest totals recorded since the league started tracking those data.
Cautious approach could pay dividends
One last factor in the question about games lost to injury is that teams may be wary about rushing players back from soft-tissue injuries like calf and hamstring strains, fearing the risk of more significant injuries. A study published in March found that calf strains and plantar fasciitis, could be precursors to Achilles ruptures, especially when players returned to the floor quicker from those ailments than the general NBA population did.
The NBA’s player health and safety staff are in constant contact with all teams, sharing data and findings. The league has advocated the use of imagining and scanning results to surveil the health of tendons and muscle tissue.
Teams may be opting to be more proactive, resting players at the first signs of discomfort or injury, rather than waiting for more serious diagnoses.
On Monday, Nov. 17, the Spurs announced that Wembanyama underwent an MRI that revealed the left calf strain. The Spurs said the injury took place in San Antonio’s loss Friday, Nov. 14 against the Warriors – a game Wembanyama not only finished, but one in which he played very well (26 points and 12 rebounds) and didn’t appear to be slowed by injury.