The draw for next summer’s World Cup went about as well as it possibly could have for the United States men’s national team.
The Americans are assured of playing two teams, Paraguay and Australia, that they’ve played this year, and it could be all three depending on the outcome of a European playoff. Turkey, which the USMNT lost to in June, is the highest-ranked of the four teams vying for the final spot in Group D.
The Americans have winning records against both Paraguay and Australia, including identical 2-1 victories over both teams this fall. Of the four European teams, the USMNT is 2-2-1 against Turkey, has losing records against Romania and Slovakia, and has never played Kosovo.
‘Our friendlies prepared us for, potentially, our full World Cup draw,’ defender Chris Richards said. ‘I think it’ll be good. Regardless of who we get for the final spot, it’s good for us to have already played these caliber of teams.’
The USMNT will not learn that last opponent for another 3½ months. Turkey and Romania face off in one European qualifying playoff game and Slovakia and Kosovo in the other March 26. The winners advance to play each other for a World Cup spot on March 31.
The USMNT will open the 48-team tournament against Paraguay on June 12 in Los Angeles. It plays Australia on June 19 in Seattle and wraps up the group stage June 25 against the European team in Los Angeles.
‘We can go into it with a really good feeling,’ Christian Pulisic said. ‘We’ve played against these teams recently, we know more or less what they’re going to look like. We know they’re tough opponents, as well. We’re not taking anyone lightly.’
Still, the USMNT is facing a much smoother road to the knockout rounds than, say, England or France. England has 2018 runner-up Croatia, USMNT World Cup nemesis Ghana and Panama in its Group L while France has 2022 African champion Senegal, Erling Haaland and Norway and the winner of an intercontinental playoff.
The USMNT caught a break when Paraguay was drawn. It should have gone to Group C, but Brazil is the top seed in that group and countries from the same confederation cannot play each other so it was moved to the USMNT’s group. The Americans also dodged Norway and Mohamed Salah and Egypt in the opener, and Croatia and 2022 semifinalist Morocco for the second game.
Even that third game could wind up being low-stress if the USMNT already has a place in the knockout rounds locked up by then.
‘It does set up well, but we also know that just because it sets up well on paper doesn’t mean it will go that way,’ defender Tim Ream said. ‘We have to focus on ourselves. We know the minimum of what it will take to beat these teams, and you can’t play a tournament like this by playing the minimum.’
The top two teams in each group are assured of advancing to the knockout rounds, but it’s at that point that the USMNT has tended to run into trouble.
The U.S. men have gotten out of the Round of 16 just once in the last 95 years, and that was more than 20 years ago. Led by Landon Donovan, the USMNT reached the quarterfinals of the 2002 World Cup before losing to eventual runner-up Germany.
With this World Cup on home soil, fans’ expectations for the Americans to make a deep run are high and their draw will do nothing to dampen those.
But USMNT coach Mauricio Pochettino cautioned against looking too far ahead. Maybe a team like Argentina, which has Lionel Messi and is the defending champion, can start strategizing a road to the final, Pochettino said. But the Americans cannot afford to take their focus off the group stage.
‘With the USA, our first game is the final of the World Cup,’ Pochettino said. ‘Then the second needs to be the final of the World Cup. And then the third.’
There’s another reason not to look too far ahead: The USMNT’s path gets decidedly trickier in the knockout rounds.
Should the Americans win the group and their Round of 32 game, they could face Belgium in the Round of 16. That’s where the Red Devils eliminated the Americans in the 2014 World Cup. If they get through that, it’s likely to be either Spain, Argentina, Portugal or England that awaits.
If the USMNT would finish second in the group and win in the Round of 16, their reward would likely be … Messi and Argentina.
‘At some point you’re going to have to play some of the best teams,’ Ream said. ‘There’s so much math going on. There was really no point in sitting there and hoping and praying. It was, OK, you’re going to get who you’re going to get and, once you know, it’s time to get down to business and prepare.’
USMNT World Cup Group D schedule
June 12: USA vs. Paraguay – SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
June 19: USA vs. Australia – Lumen Field, Seattle
June 25: USA vs. Turkey/Romania/Slovakia/Kosovo – SoFi Stadium