Like trains passing each other en route from one city’s Penn Station to the other, the fortunes of the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets changed in an instant Dec. 10.
The largest position-player transaction so far this offseason will have significant repercussions, as the Orioles continue a focused and determined roster upgrade while the Mets, for the moment, appear flat-footed as they aim to bounce back from a desultory conclusion to the 2025 season.
Alonso’s five-year, $155 million deal is a relative bargain for a guy who’s belted at least 40 home runs in three of his six full seasons, who will still be just 35 years old when the contract ends, whose glue guy ethos will greatly galvanize Baltimore’s clubhouse.
With that, let’s take a look at the winners and losers of the Polar Bear’s migration:
Winners
Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Co.
There once was a time you couldn’t type these guys’ names without dropping “best young core in the game” in there. A season and a half of collective digression gradually altered that narrative, particularly for Rutschman, who fell into a sinkhole halfway through the 2024 season and never got out.
Yet perhaps all the twenty-somethings needed was a veteran anchor. Alonso will more than provide that.
He’ll slide his right-handed bat right into the cleanup spot at Camden Yards, likely between Henderson and Rutschman. Immediately, the pressure to produce should lessen, and Alonso will tote with him seven years of battle tales playing in New York.
In a clubhouse missing a consistent voice, the Polar Bear can provide that as well. The entire squad should be uplifted on and off the field.
Mike Elias
After a meh offseason a year ago led to a 75-87 disaster, the architect of Baltimore’s extreme teardown and highly successful buildup was starting to lose his shine in Charm City, where fans wondered if three 100-loss seasons in four years was worth it.
Yet he insisted owner David Rubenstein – in his second full year at the helm – OK’d enough resources to get a significant bat and, more important, an arm or two for the rotation. The Alonso get, as big as it is on the field, serves as significant reassurance to both the clubhouse and fan base that the franchise is in it to win it. The earlier acquisition of Taylor Ward adds a 36-homer bat to the lineup, even if Ward, a free agent after 2026, is simply a rental.
And since Alonso was tendered a qualifying offer by the Mets last season, Elias doesn’t even have to surrender a coveted draft pick as compensation. Now, to find an ace…
Mets infield defense
A Pyrrhic victory? Club president David Stearns identified improving the defense as a key offseason goal and walked that walk in trading veteran Met Brandon Nimmo to the Texas Rangers for defensively-elite Marcus Semien, who will supplant Jeff McNeil. Alonso’s -9 outs above average ranked 39th out of 40 qualifying first basemen.
So, be it Mark Vientos or somebody else, the defense should be far improved on the right side of the infield. The lineup? Check back in January.
Kyle Tucker
Another big boy is off the board – and to a club that typically doesn’t swim in the nine-figure contract waters. A handful of massive-market teams are getting antsy. The Mets’ current outfield consists of Juan Soto, Tyrone Taylor and McNeil, while the 2-3-4 of the lineup goes Semien-Soto-Vientos.
Can the Mets carry a billion dollars worth of corner outfielders?
Tucker may get the chance to find out, as the Toronto Blue Jays – the presumed favorite to reel in this winter’s top prize – may find competition as the monied and desperate run out of options to improve, or simply maintain.
Losers
Owners who like to cry poor
Yes, a team that’s not from New York, Philly, Chicago or Los Angeles can get a big deal done. We saw evidence of that when the Orioles matched the Phillies’ $150 million outlay for Kyle Schwarber and the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds checked in around $120 million.
Then again, we always knew they were capable.
Alonso’s pact isn’t even a franchise record for total value, falling short of Chris Davis’s $161 million deal in 2016. The Reds once signed Joey Votto to a $225 million extension. The Pirates? Ah, surely they’ve Biggie-sized a few meals over the years, but you get the idea.
Point is, it’s been an interesting winter preceding what everyone assumes will be the nuclear one – lower-revenue teams showing out in the open market. Who knows if there’s various grievance-avoiding, fan-appeasing darker motives to it all.
But believe it or not, the money is out there! Things can be done!
David Stearns
When he was hired by the Mets, it looked for all the world like he’d be Andrew Friedman East, taking his smaller-market chops and combining it with Steve Cohen’s bottomless trove of cash to create a smart and spendy club to rival Friedman’s Dodgers.
And when, in a reloading year, Stearns’ Mets pushed the Dodgers to Game 6 of the NLCS, they seemed well on their way – and then added Juan Soto for $765 million.
Yet the roster went south in 2025 – Stearns’ gambles on pitchers Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas both blew up – and now three perceived pillars (Alonso, Diaz and Nimmo) are all gone.
Stearns already tried ducking Alonso a year ago, when he festered on the market while tied to draft-pick compensation, only for a summit with owner Steve Cohen to smooth things over and bring him back one more year – a year he hit 38 homers with an .871 OPS.
Yet this time he had no interest in a longer-term commitment. That’s fine; we all have our tastes. But going forward, Stearns may be wise to heed the words of Friedman, who in 2017 pivoted from the guy trying to achieve “value” with every transaction into the bloodless exec who’s now produced consecutive World Series championships.
“If you’re always rational about every free agent,” he said at the 2016 winter meetings, “you will finish third on every free agent.”
Ryan Mountcastle, Coby Mayo
The presumed time-sharers at first base in Baltimore suddenly find themselves either blocked or facing a diminished role. The likely scenario: Mountcastle platoons at DH with catcher Samuel Basallo, who will play against righties, while getting Alonso off his feet now and again.
As for Mayo? Well, the Orioles are in win-now mode and even if he didn’t get sufficient runway in cameos the past two seasons, the odds just increased he’s included in a package for pitching.
The AL East
For so many years we had to hear the overwrought narrative of “how tough this division is,” when really it was the Yankees and Red Sox and maybe a third party occasionally sticking their nose in.
Now, it’s more than legit.
A division that sent three teams to the playoffs has already added Alonso and Dylan Cease, two of the top 10 free agents. The Red Sox traded for Sonny Gray, the Blue Jays are intent on finishing the job in the Fall Classic and the Rays, again, are trying to pretty things up for a stadium hunt.
Who’s next? Tucker? Alex Bregman? Ketel Marte? Framber Valdez? The cost of poker will only keep going up.