The open-ended nature of Major League Baseball’s offseason can lead to transactional stasis, to the point commissioner Rob Manfred has touted the concept of a winter deadline to consummate deals, the better to energize the proceedings.
That may never happen, with players and agents alike willing to play the long game to maximize the deals they receive. Yet there is one deadline looming that will require action: Munetaka Murakami must sign with a major league team within one week.
The slugging infielder faces a 5 p.m. ET deadline Dec. 22 to decide on a team, based on the 45-day posting window veteran players from Japan enter when they transfer from the NPB to the majors. He’ll make a nice holiday addition for someone’s lineup.
A look at Murakami’s market as the clock ticks a little louder toward his decision day:
Munetaka Murakami stats: What are teams paying for?
Most famously, Murakami set the single-season record for home runs in Japan, slugging 56 as a 22-year-old for the Yakult Swallows in 2022. He’s still just 25, and has 265 home runs in his NPB career; for reference sake, Pete Alonso, 31, had 264 homers in seven seasons with the Mets.
Yet there are some yellow flags surrounding his profile. Murakami struck out at least 28% of the time each of the past three seasons. That’s not the greatest foundation given that he’ll be facing pitchers with far better stuff and will encounter elite velocity with much more frequency than he did in the NPB.
Still, just as pitchers benefit from advanced coaching and technology, Murakami can adjust. His career OBP of .394 won’t naturally commute to the most advanced league on the globe, but it’s a significant canvas with which to work.
Best fits for Munetaka Murakami
Murakami can play third base and first base, though the latter is probably preferable. He should command a salary significantly north of $100 million; while no comps are perfect, consider that Masataka Yoshida received a $90 million guarantee from the Boston Red Sox in 2023, and he had a .337 career OBP and never produced a 30-homer season in the NPB.
In a broader sense, virtually any major league team should have interest. In the universal DH era, a corner infielder essentially has three spots in the lineup to slide into. And pursuits of Kyle Schwarber by the Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles – and the latter team’s successful $151 million bid on Alonso – at least partially reflects that there’s cash to be spent out there.
Still, Murakami figures to land with a larger-revenue club, if only because they have greater latitude to shrug off a suboptimal investment should Murakami’s skills not translate to the big leagues.
With that, a handful of solid options for Murakami:
Boston Red Sox: They still owe Yoshida $35 million over the next two seasons, not that his slightly above-league-average production and injury woes should necessarily serve as a cautionary tale in pursuing another bat from the NPB. The Red Sox need more thump in the lineup, and the simplest solution would be re-upping Alex Bregman, who shined in 114 games before opting out of his deal. But we’re into the back half of December and Bregman still loiters on the market. Perhaps one week isn’t a long enough runway for the Red Sox to have any, let alone all the answers to questions – bring back Bregman? Trade Triston Casas? – that might accelerate or cool a Murakami pursuit. But there’s certainly a universe where he fits in Boston.
Toronto Blue Jays: Yeah, these guys are in on everyone, at least until further notice. Murakami would give the Blue Jays a loaded roster and options to play around with so many lineup cogs. Drop him at third base and nudge Addison Barger to left field. A year from now, the DH slot will open up with George Springer’s likely departure. And a lineup that will feature five players 30 or older will get a bit younger.
What happens next?
Good question. Virtually every elite position player free agent – from Kyle Tucker to Bregman to Bo Bichette – could certainly impact Murakami’s pool of suitors. And the going has been particularly slow for Tucker and Bichette so far.
Yet none of those guys have deadlines to sign. Murakami does – and it’s likely his signing will tell us someone is boxed out of their old home before they know it themselves.