Fresh off a historic slaughter of Alabama in the Rose Bowl, Indiana will be in Atlanta to play Oregon in the Peach Bowl in a Big Ten rematch. Miami, meanwhile, will play Mississippi in the Fiesta Bowl in a game between two teams many were stunned to see advance.
Miami-Mississippi will be Thursday, Jan. 8, whereas Indiana-Oregon will take place Friday, Jan. 9. The games are for a spot in the national championship, to be played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Jan. 19. In that sense, the Hurricanes have a chance to play a home game for a national championship.
The Hoosiers were a well-oiled machine in their win over the Crimson Tide, with Fernando Mendoza completing 14-of-16 passes for three touchdowns and the defense completely stymying any attempts by Alabama to move the ball. Oregon’s defense was similarly staunch again Texas Tech, with Dante Moore playing a similarly efficient game, albeit with less scoring.
Miami jumped out to an early lead on New Year’s Eve against Ohio State, and ultimately held on in the face of a comeback attempt by the Buckeyes. Once again, defense was the hallmark of the semifinalists, with Julian Sayin feeling pressure all night. Mississippi and Georgia played in an instant classic in the Sugar Bowl, with the Rebels holding on for a 39-34 win.
Whose season will end and who will advance for a shot at immortality? USA TODAY makes its picks for the CFP semifinals.
CFP semifinals predictions
Odds for all games are courtesy of BetMGM as of Friday, Jan. 2
Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs No. 10 Miami
Ole Miss vs Miami odds
Spread: Miami -3
Over/under: 51.5 points
Moneyline: Miami -150 | Ole Miss +130
Ole Miss vs Miami predictions
Ole Miss 31, Miami 24: The Hurricanes’ pass rush put Julian Sayin in a blender in the Cotton Bowl. Trinidad Chambliss’ mobility and whirling dervish style should give the Rebels’ offense a chance the Buckeyes never had. On the other side of the ball, I trust Pete Golding to scheme up a defense that forces Carson Beck to have to win the game. Beck hasn’t thrown for more than 150 yards in either of Miami’s CFP wins, while the Rebels have proven you’ll need to score more than 24 points to beat them – heck you may have to score 40. – Matt Glenesk, USA TODAY
Ole Miss 23, Miami 7: Miami has come out and exceeded all expectations, and that should be recognized. Beating Texas A&M and Ohio State in back to back weeks is huge for a program that backed into the CFP at the last moment. But Pete Golding proved his mettle as a coach going toe-to-toe against an SEC behemoth in Georgia, and he should find a way to make Carson Beck’s life difficult. Combine that with how difficult it is to contain Trinidad Chambliss, despite the utterly elite pass rushers Miami has, and it’s a tough matchup for Miami. To its credit, the past two have been tough as well. But the buck stops in Glendale. – Kevin Skiver, USA TODAY
Miami 27, Ole Miss 23: At some point —and this may just be stubbornly holding on to a weeks-old opinion — the inherent instability and awkwardness of the Rebels’ situation is going to be a factor, though it obviously hasn’t through two games in the playoff. Trinidad Chambliss is mesmerizing, but he hasn’t faced a pass rush quite as ferocious as Miami’s and the Hurricanes’ offense will do just enough to keep their run going all the way to the title game. The prospect of a turnover-filled dud for Carson Beck only makes me so confident in this pick, though. – Craig Meyer, USA TODAY
Peach Bowl: No. 1 Indiana vs No. 5 Oregon
Indiana vs Oregon odds
Spread: Indiana -4
Over/under: 47.5 points
Moneyline: Indiana -185 | Oregon +150
Indiana vs Oregon predictions
Indiana 35, Oregon 21: The Hoosiers’ 30-20 win over the Ducks in Eugene in October started to convert IU doubters into believers. Indiana’s Rose Bowl demolition of Alabama proselytized even the most ardent skeptics (cough, Paul Finebaum). The Hoosiers’ defense sacked Dante Moore six times and picked off the Ducks QB twice in the first meeting. And while Oregon shut out a piddling Texas Tech offense in the Orange Bowl, Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza leads one of the nation’s most balanced attacks. It sounds unbelievable to say, but Indiana football will play for the national championship. – Matt Glenesk, USA TODAY
Indiana 20, Oregon 17: Going with the old Vegas trick of laying three points on the favorite in a coin flip of a game. Oregon is an incredibly good team, and as Curt Cignetti said after the Rose Bowl, it’s tough to beat a good team twice. But it’s tougher to beat a great team once, and Indiana is a great team. Ultimately, Fernando Mendoza vs Dante Moore isn’t the matchup here. It’s in the trenches, where Indiana is among the best in the country, and weapons vs weapons. Stars matter, but Indiana is comprised of under-recruited guys with a chip on their shoulders. With that in mind, Indiana wins a grimy game in a low-scoring affair against Dan Lanning, turning the coach’s ‘no one believes in us’ motivating tactic on its head (of course, the irony of not believing in Oregon here is not lost on me). – Kevin Skiver, USA TODAY
Indiana 24, Oregon 20: The old adage about how it’s hard to beat a team twice in a season has its merits, but it can occasionally belie a deeper truth — sometimes, one team is simply better than another. Whatever fans may think of Indiana football based on the program’s mostly putrid history, the Hoosiers are the best and most complete team in the sport this season, as they showed in a Rose Bowl demolition of Alabama. They’ll stymie a Ducks offense that had difficulties against Texas Tech’s front seven and Fernando Mendoza will continue to dazzle while leading Indiana to a once-unimaginable destination. – Craig Meyer, USA TODAY