Bill Belichick to Mike Norvell, expect another active college football hot seat in 2026, even after busy year of firings.
Dave Aranda, Luke Fickell near top of hot seat list.
LaNorris Sellers, DJ Lagway are the type of quarterbacks who can get a coach off the hot seat.
Any college football coaches left to fire? Oh, yes.
It’s quiet now, but give it seven months, and fan bases across the land will be hollering for the brass to, ‘Fire everybody!’
Last season delivered one of the most active coaching carousels in the sport’s history. Buyout beach must have run out of loungers, as schools from LSU to Florida to Penn State forked over failure money.
Probably, the coaching carousel won’t be quite so active this season. Probably. And, still, several coaches will enter the 2026 season standing on the precipice of buyout utopia.
As we sit in the calm before the next storm of firings, here are five college football hot seats I can’t stop thinking about:
Bill Belichick, North Carolina
What was the first sign this might be a disaster? Was it when Belichick showed up to an offseason interview wearing a ratty Navy sweatshirt? Or, maybe it was Belichick ducking out during North Carolina’s open week for a trip to Nantucket with his muse, 24-year-old girlfriend Jordon Hudson.
Or, let’s just stick to the on-field product. TCU’s 48-14 humiliation of the Tar Heels in Belichick’s first game gave a strong hint of how his debut season would go.
North Carolina hired Belichick to a five-year deal, but it left an escape hatch in the contract. He’d be owed about $10 million if fired after this season. That’s relatively small potatoes in an otherwise exorbitant buyout landscape.
Belichick signed a large recruiting class that ranked well within the ACC, but UNC had a quieter year in the portal. Should Beli really be playing the long game with freshmen?
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin
Wisconsin should not be 37 points worse than Iowa. Seventeen points worse than Maryland. Ten points worse than Minnesota.
When Wisconsin kept Fickell after a 4-8 record in his third season, the worst year of his tenure, it played the poor card and said it hadn’t properly supported Fickell with enough financial resources. Evidently, it thought that sounded better than, “We’re keeping him to fire him next season, when his buyout is cheaper.”
This whole situation reeks of Fickell being a lame duck.
Nothing about Wisconsin’s latest transfer haul or its recruiting class suggests anything resembling momentum. Prep the buyout cannon.
Dave Aranda, Baylor
NIL and pay-for-play are a boon for most schools in Texas, the nation’s No. 1 oil-producing state. Texas Tech strolled across an oil slick all the way to a Big 12 championship and a playoff bid. Texas A&M also notched its first playoff appearance. Texas underachieved in 2025, but the Longhorns are built to last. And then there’s Baylor.
The Big 12 has room for a third team to rise up and join Texas Tech and BYU to form a power triumvirate. Why shouldn’t it be Baylor? Seriously, Baylor’s administration must ask that question as it evaluates Aranda’s 36-37 record across six seasons. He’s made the hot seat his home for a few years. His teams are plagued by bad defenses. Wasn’t defense supposed to be Aranda’s forte?
Baylor brought in a solid transfer class that includes ex-Florida quarterback DJ Lagway. If Aranda can’t get the Bears into Big 12 contention this season, then Baylor must move on and try with someone else.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina
South Carolina possesses one of the SEC’s most-talented quarterbacks in LaNorris Sellers. If Beamer can’t win with him, that’s a problem — a problem that could spark a coaching search, on the heels of last year’s 4-8 season.
Beamer has delivered three winning seasons in five years at South Carolina. That makes him better than most predecessors not named Steve Spurrier. Trouble is, Beamer posted his best season in Year 4, followed by his worst year last season. That’s a classic case of raising the bar, then failing to meet it, and that’s a recipe for a firing.
Beamer is responsible for multiple big wins, but consistency eludes him.
The Gamecocks return ample production, and Beamer brought in Kendal Briles as his offensive coordinator. If this assembly doesn’t work, there’ll be no excuse that can save Beamer.
Mike Norvell, Florida State
Norvell twice prolonged his tenure by getting a vote of confidence from his boss, first in 2021 and then again from a different boss last season. Coaches generally don’t get a third vote of confidence. They get a buyout check.
Norvell’s whopper buyout bought him cover the past two seasons. The buyout is still quite large — well over $40 million — but Florida State isn’t the type of program that’s going to quietly stomach a third straight losing season.
With Clemson down, the Seminoles are wasting a golden opportunity to rise up, backpedaling with Norvell while Miami fills the power vacuum. That’s how a Florida State coach gets fired.
More heat: No hot seat list would be complete without mention of Mike Locksley (Maryland), Bill O’Brien (Boston College) and Derek Mason (Middle Tennessee). Other big names at major programs could find themselves on the hot seat if 2026 goes splat. You can probably guess some of those names. We’re not quite ready to go there.
Hey, it’s only February. The buyout cannon needs a chance to refuel.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.