They’re the very reason we call it March Madness. They happen every year, those early upsets that shred the most well-conceived brackets. And, they always leave us asking the big question: “Why didn’t we see that coming?” Well, sometimes we did, but picking the right upsets in the round of 64 can be the difference between winning a piece of your pool or contributing to someone else’s beer fund. We’re here to help.
Once again, we’ll stick to the NCAA record book’s definition of an upset as a team beating an opponent seeded five or more places higher. This means the 7-10 and 8-9 games are essentially tossups. Even so, there seems to be a lot of potential for chaos this year, thanks to a significant number of accomplished teams from outside the so-called power conferences. Here are a half dozen such teams to keep an eye on as the first round unfolds. There might be other agents of chaos coming from outside this list – did anyone have Oakland taking down Kentucky last year? But we think these double-digit seeds have the best chance to make noise.
No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis
Comparing conferences isn’t always a valid predictor of success in this event, but there’s an argument that CSU’s finishing kick in the Mountain West was better preparation than the Tigers’ run through the one-bid American. The Rams enter on a 10-game winning streak, and if you don’t know about Nique Clifford yet, you soon will. Memphis also has talent and has won eight in a row itself, but even the books have CSU as a slight favorite.
No. 11 Drake over No. 6 Missouri
The Bulldogs, winners of 30 games and repeat champs of the Missouri Valley despite a coaching change and roster makeover, will be another popular upset choice. Drake’s top dog is Bennett Stirtz, a do-it-all floor leader like CSU’s Clifford who is ready for his moment on the big stage.
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No. 13 Yale over No. 4 Texas A&M
Another pesky bunch of Bulldogs, this one from the Ivy League, will look to take down an SEC squad in the round of 64 for a second consecutive year. This season’s Yale team does not have big man Danny Wolf, who is now at Michigan, but it does have sharpshooter John Poulakidas and numerous other guys capable of getting hot from the arc. The Bulldogs won’t be overawed after beating Auburn last season.
No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth over No. 6 Brigham Young
And here we have another group of Rams, representing another program that has made noise in March in the not-too-distant past. VCU paced the Atlantic 10 for much of the season and even briefly cracked the top 25 thanks to experienced hands like scoring guard Joe Bamisile and versatile forward Jack Clark. BYU, which was also playing its best basketball during the latter half of the campaign, is a tough draw for the Rams. The game will almost certainly feature a slew of three-point shots.
No. 12 UC San Diego over No. 5 Michigan
Among March Madness newcomers, the Tritons might be best equipped to pull off a win. The driving force for UCSD is Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, the team’s top scorer and facilitator who also crashes the boards. They will be at a considerable size disadvantage against the Big Ten champion Wolverines, but Michigan is coming off short rest after winning the final contest on Selection Sunday.
No. 13 Akron over No. 4 Arizona
The Zips might be the longest of the long shots on this list of candidates. Their three-point shooting can be spotty, and they needed to erase an 18-point deficit in the MAC championship game against the Miami RedHawks just to get here. But the Wildcats’ NCAA tournament history can be described as feast or famine, with four Final Four appearances and a national championship but also some notable flameouts.