South Florida’s undefeated start to the 2025 season ended with a loss to Miami.
Despite the defeat, South Florida’s playoff hopes are still alive.
Its chances are alive, but South Florida still faces a challenging conference schedule.
The magic carpet South Florida rode for the first two weeks of the 2025 season entered the turbulent winds of a hurricane and did not make it out.
In an in-state matchup of ranked opponents, it was all Miami as it overwhelmed the Bulls in a convincing 49-12 victory to reign supreme in the Sunshine State.
After beating Boise State and Florida, a win over the No. 6 team in the country would’ve solidified the Bulls as a team of destiny. At 3-0, not only would they be a College Football Playoff favorite, but it wouldn’t be ridiculous to say they could make some noise in the postseason.
Instead, the Hurricanes marched into the end zone on their opening drive and never looked back, while the defense made life miserable for Byrum Brown and company.
It’s a deflating defeat. But did it ruin South Florida’s season?
Not even close.
What’s great about a 12-team playoff is the pressure is taken off the Group of Five teams to stay perfect in order to sit at the table. While the overall competition isn’t as tough as the Big Ten or SEC, it wasn’t fair the underdogs had no wiggle room to prove they deserve a shot.
In this era as a Group of Five team, South Florida has to do two things to ensure itself a spot in the playoff field.
Be the highest-ranked Group of Five team
Win its conference championship
The Bulls have arguably one of the best resumes of the early season. Two ranked victories and a loss to a Top 10 team, which shouldn’t be penalized as much as it used to be. The College Football Playoff selection committee changed how it views strength of schedule – teams won’t be severely punished for losing to high-quality opponents.
South Florida already positioned itself as the top-ranked Group of Five team in the US LBM Coaches Poll coming into Week 3. Even with the blowout loss, it can assume it will still be in that category when the new poll is released on Sept. 14.
Step one is already in motion. The Bulls have positioned themselves well for when the first College Football Playoff rankings drop on Nov. 14.
It’ll be easy to compare USF’s path to a playoff spot to Boise State last season. The Broncos lost on the road by three points to eventual No. 1 seed Oregon in Week 2 before they ran the Mountain West by winning 10 games in a row.
The Bulls could do the same in the American and win the conference at 12-1 to undoubtedly secure their spot. The chances of making the College Football Playoff are still well within their grasp – it’s just not an easy road there.
Boise State was clearly the top dog in the conference in 2024. South Florida can’t say the same, because it isn’t the only team in the American capable of making the playoffs.
And it’s not hard to tell who the favorites are in what suddenly has become an intriguing league in the College Football Playoff race.
Last year’s runner-up, Tulane, remains loaded, with former Brigham Young quarterback Jake Retzlaff picking up his momentum from last season. The Green Wave opened the season with a convincing win over Northwestern and headed into another showdown with a Power 4 team in Duke.
There’s also Navy, coming off its first 10-win season since 2019 and with Blake Horvath back under center. You also can’t forget Memphis, winners of 11 games in 2024; Ryan Silverfield has reloaded for 2025.
South Florida will have to play at Memphis on Oct. 25 and at Navy on Nov. 15. Both teams it lost to last season, and ones it could play again in the American championship game.
Can South Florida afford to lose another game? Hard to say, but with a conference championship in hand, it should get in the playoff.
The Bulls may be the best story in college football and the people’s vote to make the 12-team playoff. They’ve proven through marquee wins they can qualify for it, bringing hope not seen since 2007, when Matt Grothe and Mike Ford propelled USF to No. 2 in the initial reveal of the BCS rankings.
But in that remembrance comes a lesson. That team started 6-0 before it lost its next three games and took itself not just out of the national title picture, but the BCS as well.
The season is far from over. The Bulls have nine games left, but in the American, there are teams ready to end the dream in Tampa and thrust themselves into the CFP conversation.
If South Florida wants to reach unprecedented heights and honor that team of destiny from 18 years ago, it can’t let the loss to Miami derail its season; it’s got to finish the job, and prove this isn’t the same old South Florida.