This weekly College Football Playoff projection is based on on-field performance and strength of schedule, not preseason polls.
Miami, Oklahoma, LSU, and Ohio State currently hold the top four spots, earning projected first-round byes.
The projected field includes teams like Indiana, Texas Tech, and South Florida making the cut based on key wins.
If you’ve come for a rubber stamp of preseason polls, you’re in the wrong the place.
This may shock some, but what happens on the field – and who you’ve played – runs this College Football Playoff weekly projection.
Not what a coach or a media pollster thinks prior to the season, thereby beginning the inane and weekly process of slotting. Or in some cases, sheer stupidity.
We’re all about ball. What happens on the field, and who it happens against.
So if you think Ohio State is the nation’s No.1 team because it beat then No.1 Texas in the first week of the season, find another poll. If you haven’t already accepted Texas wasn’t the best team in the nation to begin the season, you probably belong with the group that believes ‘their process is different than others.’
This week’s College Football Playoff 12
1. Miami: Two rivalry games, two big wins at home. And the dismantling of flavor of the week South Florida. Still want to see Canes play outside the state of Florida, which won’t happen until Nov. 1 at SMU (that’s not a misprint). Next: bye week.
2. Oklahoma: Sooners have wins over two teams (Michigan, Auburn) that won big games on the road before or after playing OU, and proved their worth. Next: bye week.
3. LSU: Wins over Clemson and Florida strengthen the argument, even if both have underachieved this season. Certainly a better schedule than a majority of FBS steams. Next: at Ole Miss.
4. Ohio State: Texas looks like an eight-win team right now (subject to change). We’re going to find out about Ohio State this week in a sneaky tough game. Next: at Washington.
5. Georgia: Should we suddenly be concerned about a Georgia defense that hasn’t played well against the deep ball since 2023? Especially with You Know Who coming to town. Next: vs. Alabama.
6. Florida State: Tommy Castellanos says his knee injury is ‘manageable.’ This can’t be happening again with another game-changing quarterback (see: Jordan Travis). Next: at Virginia.
7. Indiana: You can question the veracity of Illinois’ Top 10 ranking. You can’t question the Hoosiers hanging 63. Next: at Iowa.
8. Texas Tech: A statement win in a brutal environment at Utah – with a backup quarterback. Any questions now about the million dollar babies? Next: bye week.
9. Penn State: You’re Penn State, do better with non-conference scheduling (Nevada, FIU, Villanova), and stop whining about playing nine Big Ten games. Next: vs. Oregon.
10. Texas A&M: Aggies coach Mike Elko says this is a real program, and that, ‘It’s not fake.’ The gutty win at Notre Dame was impressive, but now SEC play begins. Next: vs. Auburn.
11. Oregon: Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern, Oregon State – woof. Let’s check back next Sunday. Next: at Penn State.
12. South Florida: Bulls have done the heavy lifting (wins vs. Boise State and at Florida) to project here. Still have to win the AAC to advance. Next: bye week.
Projecting the College Football Playoff field
First round games
South Florida (12) at Georgia (5)
Oregon (11) at Florida State (6)
Texas A&M (10) at Indiana (7)
Penn State (9) at Texas Tech (8)
First round byes: Miami, Oklahoma, LSU, Ohio State.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
(This story was updated to change a video.)