The Big Ten champion, either Ohio State or Indiana, has a strong chance to finish the regular season undefeated.
Texas A&M’s path to an undefeated season will likely require a victory in the SEC title game.
Georgia Tech, BYU, and Navy face more difficult schedules in their quests for a perfect season.
A college football weekend relatively free of upsets yielded little in the way of material ripe for overreaction. So rather than look at individual moments or outcomes, we’ll take a look at the sport’s most exclusive club.
As fate and mathematics would have it, on the eve of the season’s final month there could conceivably be five teams left with unblemished slates when College Football Playoff time arrives, one from each of the top five conferences. Obviously, the postseason will start reducing that list even further, so we’ll limit our exercise to which members of the unbeaten club have the best chance to reach the playoff still unscathed.
Ohio State/Indiana
Obviously the Buckeyes and Hoosiers can’t both be unbeaten after the Big Ten title game since under this scenario they’ll have played each other in Indianapolis. That said, both of them have a good chance of getting there with 12-0 marks, but for one small matter.
We’ll start with the Hoosiers, who only have one more home game in November, a probable romp over offense-challenged Wisconsin. None of Indiana’s three remaining road dates, however, loom as being particularly daunting. Maryland has improved but can’t seem to close in the fourth quarter, Penn State will have an interim coach and a backup quarterback and Purdue is just trying to make it to basketball season.
Ohio State also faces Penn State and Purdue, and the Buckeyes’ other remaining dates are at home against UCLA – which just received a reality check from Indiana – and Rutgers, which had a similarly humbling result against Oregon.
Then there’s the Thanksgiving week finale. We don’t even have to say it, do we, Ohio State fans? In truth, if the Buckeyes can shed their own collective mental baggage they’ll beat a largely one-dimensional Michigan team with little fanfare, and in the process check that last box on Ryan Day’s coaching resume. But a rivalry can be a strange beast. So with all that stated up front, we’d say the Big Ten champ has the best chance to reach Selection Sunday unscathed.
Texas A&M
The Aggies have a road date at Missouri and a season finale at renewed rival Texas (see above on rivalry games), but for the most part they’ve done the heavy lifting already with the first two months of the season successfully negotiated. A&M’s biggest remaining obstacle then will likely come in the SEC title game. It could be another recent upstart like Ole Miss or Vanderbilt awaiting the Aggies in Atlanta. But it’s more likely to be Alabama or Georgia, programs accustomed to the bright lights and the big stage.
Even with a loss there, the Aggies would still have plenty on their resume to warrant playoff inclusion, and perhaps still a bye to the quarterfinals. But an SEC title with a 13-0 ledger would present a compelling argument for the top overall seed – unless the Big Ten champ is also perfect. But that’s an overreaction debate for another day.
Georgia Tech
Having already survived a couple of games decided on the final play, the Yellow Jackets can’t exactly guarantee victory just by stepping on to the field. We’ll allow that their remaining ACC contests are winnable, however, though their final league test against Pittsburgh in a few weeks is looking trickier.
After that, of course, is the annual showdown with Georgia. The Bulldogs have gotten the better of it for a number of years, but Tech has closed the gap of late and by rights probably should have won last year’s meeting. Up next then would be the conference final against – Miami? Virginia? Louisville? Someone else? Suffice it to say that is very much up in the air at this point.
Could the Jackets make the playoff without winning the ACC? It’s unlikely without a win against Georgia to bolster their at-large case. But again, that’s a hypothetical argument that will be taken up on another day, possibly by the committee members themselves.
Brigham Young
We’d say that of the Power Four conference leaders, BYU’s path to perfection is the most treacherous. Then again, the Cougars passed one of their remaining road tests this weekend at Iowa State, overcoming an early two-score deficit in the process.
But two Big 12 road trips remain against ranked opponents. The next one in two weeks might be the toughest at Texas Tech, then a couple weeks after that is an even longer flight to Cincinnati. The good news is the Cougars have the coming week off to prepare for the difficult stretch drive. They might not have to win all their November games to play for the conference title, but they’ll probably need to at least split those two road dates.
Navy
Let’s state this up front. What the Midshipmen have accomplished thus far to get to 7-0 is tremendous, and quarterback Blake Horvath absolutely belongs in the Heisman discussion. But with that said, Navy is the longest of long shots on this list to run the table, simply by virtue of having the toughest November schedule.
Navy’s finishing stretch in the American is tough enough, starting with next week’s trip to 7-1 North Texas. A home date with 6-2 South Florida and a season-ending visit to 7-1 Memphis are also on the docket. And oh yeah, there’s also the trip to Notre Dame in two weeks. But though perfection is a tall order, Navy could win the league, and yes, even make the playoff. This whole exercise is about daring to dream, right?