The College Football Playoff picture could remain stable or descend into chaos depending on the results of rivalry weekend.
Potential coaching changes, such as Lane Kiffin at Mississippi, could influence the selection committee’s decisions.
Losses by favorites like Alabama or Oklahoma could open the door for several bubble teams to claim at-large spots.
The College Football Playoff race has entered choose-your-own-adventure territory.
One door leads to the status quo. This was the story this past Saturday in Week 13, when every playoff favorite held serve to result in no major changes to the fourth playoff rankings.
A drama-free bracket remains the most probable scenario given this week’s schedule and the likely matchups in conference championship games. But just one unexpected result could trigger chaos and even controversy, especially in the debate over which at-large teams reach the playoff.
With at least six teams in competition for the final at-large spots and more than twice that number still alive in the race for Power Four conference championships, let’s examine the potential fallout from rivalry weekend:
What happens if Michigan beats Ohio State?
No. 15 Michigan would be in position to reach the Big Ten championship game with one of two accompanying results: No. 2 Indiana losing to Purdue or No. 5 Oregon losing to Washington.
But a fifth win in a row in this series wouldn’t ensure an at-large berth. While beating No. 1 Ohio State would give the Wolverines the best single win by any team in the Bowl Subdivision, this would represent the only victory against a Power Four opponent with more than seven wins. (The number would double if Washington knocks off the Ducks.)
Even with another setback against its biggest rivals, Ohio State could earn an immediate rematch in the Big Ten championship if Indiana and Oregon lose.
More likely, the Buckeyes stay home for the conference championship but still earn one of the top four seeds and a bye through the opening round.
What happens if Mississippi loses the Egg Bowl?
For one, the stink of a loss on the doorstep of a playoff berth would cling to Lane Kiffin and raise serious questions about his here-and-now investment in the Rebels’ season amid his connection to the unfilled openings at LSU and Florida.
With Kiffin set to announce on Saturday whether he’s staying in Oxford or departing for another SEC locale, a loss to Mississippi State could drop No. 6 Mississippi out of the field.
There is no example of a coach leaving a playoff team before the playoff. One possible analog is the committee’s treatment of Florida State two years ago: While the Seminoles were unbeaten, they were left out of the top four after an injury to quarterback Jordan Travis. But the difference is the committee got to observe the Seminoles for two games without Travis. There would be no data point for Mississippi playing without Kiffin.
The committee might set a new precedent by valuing the loss of a head coach in the same way as the loss of a starting quarterback — even if doing so would ignore the Rebels’ overall résumé, which includes wins against No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 23 Tulane.
What happens if Texas A&M loses to Texas?
There’s no way into the playoff picture for No. 16 Texas barring losses from every two-loss contender, and even then the Longhorns might come up short.
A win would send No. 3 Texas A&M to the SEC championship game and earn a matchup with No. 4 Georgia or No. 10 Alabama. The Aggies are locked into an at-large berth even with a loss.
But a loss would be great news for Georgia, which would earn another trip to Atlanta. A&M could still backdoor into a matchup with the Bulldogs should Alabama drop the Iron Bowl.
What happens if Alabama loses to Auburn?
Heartbreak, anger, tears, venom, bitterness, rage and general despair.
An Alabama loss in the Iron Bowl would knock the Crimson Tide out of the SEC championship game and raise the temperature on coach Kalen DeBoer’s seat to surface-of-the-sun toasty. To lose to this Auburn team — one that has spent most of the year near the bottom of the SEC — would be particularly damning.
A loss would ensure that Georgia plays for the SEC championship against either Texas A&M Mississippi. Alabama would also be eliminated from at-large consideration.
What happens if Oklahoma loses to LSU?
While a win would guarantee Oklahoma’s place in the playoff, a loss would open a door for an-large bid and potentially place a second Big 12 or ACC team in the tournament.
Teams that will be watching this game closely include No. 11 Brigham Young, No. 12 Vanderbilt and No. 13 Miami. The Cougars close with Central Florida before likely drawing a rematch against No. 7 Texas Tech. Vanderbilt takes on No. 18 Tennessee and the Hurricanes face No. 24 Pittsburgh.
A loss would be one-half of the best-case scenario for these bubble teams. Combined with an Alabama loss in the Iron Bowl, an Oklahoma bellyflop against LSU would open up two at-large spots.
What happens if Virginia loses to Virginia Tech?
No. 17 Virginia’s matchup with the Hokies is tipping point in an undecided ACC that could unfold in multiple ways over Thanksgiving weekend.
Should the Cavaliers drop the Commonwealth Cup, No. 25 SMU would be in position to play either Duke or Miami in the conference championship; the tiebreaker between the Blue Devils and Hurricanes could come down to the result between North Carolina State and North Carolina that would impact opponents’ league winning percentage.
A loss to Virginia Tech would also help Miami finish a steady climb into the playoff after dropping two midseason conference games. The easiest path for the Hurricanes involves an SMU win and losses by the Cavaliers and Blue Devils.
In fact, half of the ACC championship could be decided between the Hurricanes and Pittsburgh. The Panthers advance with a win combined with either an SMU or Virginia loss.
What’s the most chaotic playoff scenario?
Let’s start with the rock-solid assumption that four teams are already in the playoff: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Georgia.
Next, let’s add a fifth team in Texas Tech, which is a three-touchdown favorite against West Virginia. Finally, let’s assume that last week’s win against No. 20 Southern California means Oregon is in regardless of what happens against Washington.
That means half of the tournament is essentially set before games begin this week.
Here’s how chaos comes to the playoff:
Mississippi drops the Egg Bowl and, combined with Kiffin’s exit, loses some credibility with the committee. Oklahoma falls to LSU. Notre Dame loses to Stanford. Alabama drops the Iron Bowl. Miami loses to Pittsburgh. Vanderbilt loses to Tennessee. Utah loses to Kansas.
That would leave a bracket with the Big Ten and SEC champions as the top seeds. Texas Tech would climb into the top four with a win against BYU.
The final bye would go to the top one-loss runner-up from the Big Ten and SEC, with the other coming in as the No. 5 seed. The Ducks would be No. 6 with a win against Washington. Two spots would go to the winners of the ACC and the American, leaving four more at-large berths.
While the committee could keep the two-loss Rebels in the field and bump in BYU, which would have only losses to the Red Raiders, that would still leave two open seats. Here’s where Texas could come back into play with a win against A&M. Michigan would also earn an at-large spot with a win against Ohio State even if the Wolverines are boxed out of the Big Ten championship by Indiana and Oregon.