Alabama’s ranking suggests they may secure a playoff spot regardless of the SEC championship outcome.
James Madison entered the rankings, creating a potential path to the playoff for the Sun Belt champion.
The ACC faces a scenario where it could be left out of the playoff entirely if five-loss Duke wins the conference.
The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings set the stage for conference championship weekend and the last gasp of what has been an unpredictable regular season.
All eyes will be on the SEC, where No. 9 Alabama looks to beat No. 3 Georgia in a rematch of the Crimson Tide’s 24-21 win in Athens earlier this year.
An Alabama win and a No. 4 Texas Tech win against No. 11 Brigham Young could maintain the status quo and leave a chalky 12-team bracket. Even then, though, there will be plenty of controversy over the exclusion of No. 12 Miami despite the Hurricanes’ head-to-head win against No. 10 Notre Dame.
No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana are set for an unbeaten clash in the Big Ten. And there’s trouble brewing in the ACC, where five-loss Duke looks to pull off an unexpected conference championship by beating No. 17 Virginia. That would be terrible news for the ACC, for reasons we’ll explain.
No. 25 James Madison, Alabama and the ACC lead the winners and losers from Tuesday night’s rankings:
Winners
James Madison
Left for dead as a possible playoff team because of the success of the American, James Madison jumped into the rankings for the first time and suddenly has a second avenue to the tournament thanks to the possibility of chaos in the ACC. Remember, the committee picks the five best conference champions for automatic bids and doesn’t simply tap the Power Four winners and the best team from the Group of Five. In other words, the situation exists where two of the five highest-ranked conference winners come from the Group of Five in the American and the Sun Belt. The Dukes are heavy favorites in the matchup against Troy for the Sun Belt title.
Alabama
By moving up one spot and bumping back Notre Dame, the Crimson Tide can feel confident that they’re in the playoff regardless of what happens in the SEC championship, barring a lopsided, embarrassing blowout. That’s great news for Alabama and for the SEC, too, since No. 13 Texas and No. 14 Vanderbilt have no viable way into the tournament. Whether Alabama deserved this bump after playing average football for the past month is another question.
The American
Tulane rose four spots to No. 20 and North Texas debuted at No. 24, finalizing what we already suspected: The Group of Five’s automatic representative will be the American champion. The matchup has plenty of national impact, but one underlying theme to watch is the fact that both teams will be led by a coach set to take a new job: Jon Sumrall is leaving Tulane for Florida, while Eric Morris is going from North Texas to Oklahoma State.
Mississippi
Not only did the Rebels not drop after Lane Kiffin’s departure for LSU, they actually climbed one spot to No. 6. That tells us the committee still sees this as a team capable of winning the national championship even without Kiffin on the sidelines. Looking ahead to the bracket, to rise one spot secures a home game to start the playoff amid fears the committee would dock the Rebels for Kiffin’s absence and send them on the road in the opening round.
Losers
The ACC
The nightmare has Duke beating Virginia and Alabama either winning the SEC or playing well enough to hold onto that at-large spot, which could potentially keep the ACC out of the playoff altogether. Should the Tide hang on, that would likely prevent the Hurricanes from turning a late-season rebound into an at-large berth after dropping games to Louisville and SMU. This is not a far-fetched scenario: Duke could very well win the rematch against Virginia, Alabama could beat the Bulldogs a second time and JMU could put on a show to take home the Sun Belt. Even if leaving out a major conference would seem unlikely given how the format favors this group, the ACC has been seen all season as the weakest Power Four league.
Notre Dame
Notre Dame should be fine and should draw an at-large berth and a road game in the opening round. But being sent back to No. 10 means the Irish will be the team bumped out should BYU win the rematch with Texas Tech, which would still keep the Red Raiders in the field as an at-large pick. With the regular season complete, all Notre Dame can do is watch and hope for no surprises.
Utah
Since hitting a high of No. 12 two weeks ago, Utah has dropped three spots to No. 15 and no longer has any path to the playoff as an at-large pick. That was made official by closer-than-expected wins against Kansas State and Kansas that saw the Utes’ run defense allow a combined 762 yards. Utah has since been jumped by Miami, No. 13 Texas and No. 14 Vanderbilt.