The Pittsburgh Steelers are on the verge of winning the AFC North for the first time since 2020. They may have to clinch the honor without the services of their top receiver, DK Metcalf.
The NFL suspended Metcalf two games for ‘conduct detrimental to the NFL’ after the 28-year-old got into an altercation with a fan during his team’s Week 16 win over the Detroit Lions.
‘Metcalf’s actions violate league policy, which specifies that ‘players may not enter the stands or otherwise confront fans at any time on game day,’ the NFL said in a statement obtained by USA TODAY Sports. ‘If a player makes unnecessary physical contact with a fan in any way that constitutes unsportsmanlike conduct or presents crowd-control issues and/or risk of injury, he will be held accountable.’
Metcalf is planning to appeal the suspension, per multiple reports. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero also reported ‘had a history’ with the fan in question and had reported the fan to security last season while he was with the Seattle Seahawks.
However, if Metcalf’s suspension is upheld, the Steelers will have to clinch passage to the postseason without the services of Metcalf. How easy will that be? Here’s a look at the Steelers’ playoff chances and what they’ll need to do over the final two weeks to make the playoffs.
Steelers playoff chances
The Steelers have an estimated 92% chance to make the playoffs, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. They are battling with the Baltimore Ravens atop the divisional race but have earned a significant advantage after winning back-to-back games and seeing Baltimore drop back-to-back contests.
The Ravens have just an 8% chance to make the postseason, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Steelers playoff scenarios
The Steelers can wrap up a playoff berth in Week 17 if one of the following scenarios occurs:
Steelers win OR tie against Cleveland Browns OR
Ravens lose OR tie against Green Bay Packers.
Baltimore will be in action Saturday, so Pittsburgh will know if it has already clinched a playoff berth before its game Sunday.
If the Steelers are unable to clinch the division in Week 17, they can get into the playoffs with a win or a tie against the Ravens in Week 18.
The only way the Steelers will be eliminated from playoff contention is if the following scenario unfolds:
Steelers lose to Cleveland Browns in Week 17 AND
Ravens win final two games.
Metcalf’s absence may make that scenario slightly more likely to occur – if only because the Steelers lack depth at the wide receiver position – but the Steelers still certainly have a significant edge in the AFC North race.
AFC North standings
The Steelers and Ravens were tied atop the AFC North standings entering their head-to-head battle in Week 15. Since then, Pittsburgh has opened a two-game lead on Baltimore with two games left to play.
Below is a look at the pecking order within the division:
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)
Baltimore Ravens (7-8)
Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)
Cleveland Browns (3-12)
The Steelers currently own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ravens and possess a better divisional record (3-1) than the Ravens (3-2).
The only way Baltimore can win a tiebreaker over Pittsburgh is if the Steelers lose their final two games. That would give the Ravens a better divisional record than their rival.
Even then, the Ravens would still need to beat the Packers in Week 17 to have any shot at unseating the Steelers in the season’s 11th hour.
Steelers remaining schedule
The Steelers have the eighth-easiest remaining strength of schedule over the final two weeks of the NFL season, per Tankathon. That’s buoyed by their Week 17 matchup with the AFC North-worst Browns.
Here’s a look at Pittsburgh’s end-of-season slate:
Week 17: at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Week 18: vs. Baltimore Ravens (7-8)
Ravens remaining schedule
Conversely, the Ravens have the 10th-hardest finish to the season. They are playing two nine-win teams to close the season. Both are currently on track to make the 2025 NFL playoffs.
Here’s a look at how Baltimore finishes the regular season:
Week 17: at Green Bay Packers (9-5-1)
Week 18: at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6)
Steelers WR depth chart
Below is a look at the receivers on whom the Steelers will be relying if Metcalf’s suspension is upheld.
Calvin Austin III
Adam Thielen
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Ben Skowronek
Scotty Miller
Roman Wilson
Austin leads the team with 28 receptions this season, while Thielen and Valdes-Scantling are recent veteran additions signed to improve the Steelers’ depth at the position.
In all likelihood, the Steelers will also rely on their trio of solid tight ends – Pat Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith and Darnell Washington – as well as running backs Kenneth Gainwell (the team’s receptions leader) and Jaylen Warren to keep their passing game afloat without Metcalf.