MILAN — Alysa Liu is Team USA’s best hope to break the women’s figure skating Winter Olympics medal drought. Can she do it?
Ahead of Liu are the Japan duo of Ami Nakai and Kaori Sakamoto, and right behind her is another Japanese skater in Mone Chiba. Plus, Russia native Adeliia Petrosian is lurking.
So, what are the chances Liu ends up on the podium, or wins gold? A look at recent results shows what’s possible.
Alysa Liu free skate record
The 2025-26 season has been great for Liu in the free skate, with her continuously improving her score in each outing. In her first event, she got 128.22, and in the U.S. championships before the Olympics, earned a 147.80.
That does come with an asterisk. At nationals, Liu brought out her Lady Gaga medley, and is going back to the “MacArthur Park Suite.” The last time she used it, she got 146.70 at the Grand Prix Finals, which she won.
Ami Nakai free skate record
The surprising leader, Nakai put up a season-best short program to be in first. She may need another to hold onto gold.
Nakai’s personal best this season is 149.08, but she’s only gone over 140 in three of eight outings. Most recently, in January, she put up a 141.95 at the Four Continents event.
Kaori Sakamoto free skate record
Sakamoto is the gold medal favorite for a reason, consistently putting up stellar performances. This season, she has scored at least 148 points in all but one event. In the team event earlier in the Olympics, she scored 148.62, which won Japan the full 10 points.
Mone Chiba, Adeliia Petrosian free skate record
The people on the outside looking in do have a chance to shake up the standings. Chiba has been hit-and-miss in the free skate, scoring as high as 144.94 but as low as 131.84. In her last competition in January, she scored 134.16.
Petrosian is a bit of a mystery because she doesn’t have much international experience since Russian athletes have mostly been banned by the International Skating Union. She scored 151.22 in a Russian event, but 140.91 in the Olympic qualifiers. The lowest scores of the season have come in the Olympic qualifier and the Games, with her short program score the lowest she has received.
Can Alysa Liu medal at Winter Olympics?
Based on the season and current standings, Liu does have a big opportunity to pass by Nakai on the leaderboard. However, Sakamoto presents the most difficult challenge.
In the team event, Sakamoto had a total of 227.50 points, and is in the realm of achieving that again. If that is the case, Liu needs to score at least 150 points, something she has yet to do this season. This gives Sakamoto the best odds to win gold.
As for Chiba and Petrosian, the Japanese skater does have the potential to pass Liu on the leaderboard, giving the possibility of a full sweep of the podium for Japan. But given the up-and-down nature of her skates, she is the biggest wild card. Petrosian may not have enough since her scores in the few international competitions she’s been in have not been as high as when competing in her home country.
Anything can happen on the ice that completely shakes up the standings, giving some names not even mentioned a chance to end their Olympics in triumph. But if things go somewhat as they are expected to, Liu is in great position to win a medal, but gold is a difficult path.