In NFL free agency, spending sprees don’t quite elicit the same level of shaming they once did.
Every year, the pool of available talent thins out considerably in advance of the new league year, as extensions and franchise tags prevent elite players from hitting the open market in full. But that doesn’t prevent a handful of teams from using their war chest of available cap space. And with the salary cap continuing to swell annually – this year to $301.2 million – teams can move on from free-agency misses while still finding ways to absorb sizable dead-cap hits.
Still, whiffing on a big contact for an outside acquisition can be a painful setback for a general manager. And more than a handful of notable players this year come with a good degree of caution for any team considering signing them.
Here are eight free agents who could be among the riskiest players to sign on the open market this offseason, with their place on USA TODAY Sports’ top 100 free agent rankings in parentheses:
Rasheed Walker, OT, Green Bay Packers (9)
Any team looking to safeguard its quarterback with free-agent reinforcements is probably going to have to pay the offensive tackle tax. And they’re not going to like it.
At a position where demand always outpaces supply, top players seldom hit the market, and serviceable starters get elevated to priority status for those with room to spend. That setup has led to some of the more surprising – and regrettable – free-agent contracts in recent years, including Dan Moore Jr. (four years, $82 million from the Tennessee Titans) and Jaylon Moore (two years, $30 million from the Kansas City Chiefs) last offseason.
The latest blocker to benefit from this dynamic figures to be Walker. In his three years as a starter at left tackle, the 26-year-old established himself as an average-to-above-average pass protector who hasn’t moved the needle – or people – in the run game. But coming off a year in which he ranked 11th in pass-block win rate at 93.8%, he’s positioned himself as the premier offensive tackle on the market. And accompanying that should be a payday that will catch many by surprise.
Still, Walker has had his fair share of lapses, including surrendering six pressures and committing two penalties in a wild-card loss to the Chicago Bears. Those sort of setbacks were tolerable for a player on a rookie contract, but they’ll be hard to stomach for a team shelling out more than $20 million per year.
Nahshon Wright, CB, Chicago Bears (22)
Credit Wright for finding a way to make things click at the third stop in his career. Signed by the Bears last April as essentially an afterthought, the 6-4, 199-pound cover man tied for second in the NFL with five interceptions, fueling a defense that depended on generating turnovers. He also added three recoveries for a league-high total of eight takeaways while adding two forced fumbles and 11 passes defensed.
That ball production, however, belied his overall performance in coverage. Wright surrendered more yards (696) last season than all but five other cornerbacks. If opposing quarterbacks opt to be a bit more discerning in attacking a player with fairly pronounced strengths as well as weaknesses – Wright’s build makes it difficult for him to stick with shiftier receivers who can redirect suddenly – then much of his appeal will be wiped out. He still could find success in a scheme that allows him to use his length and timing to close in on throws from off coverage, but expecting him to reprise his breakout season seems likely to end in disappointment.
Riq Woolen, CB, Seattle Seahawks (32)
Since arriving in the NFL, Woolen has been the embodiment of volatility in coverage.
He’s long been chasing the rookie form that allowed him to snag six interceptions and a Pro Bowl nod. And while there’s understandable appeal in trotting out a 6-4, 210-pound cornerback with elite straight-line speed, Woolen has too often been undone by his own lack of discipline. The issue came to a head in the NFC championship game this year, when he followed up a taunting penalty by allowing Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua to burn him for a 34-yard touchdown strike. The Seahawks stood by him, but a change in scenery might be best for all parties.
Woolen allowed the fewest yards per target (2.7) in man coverage of any player targeted at least 20 times this season, according to Next Gen Stats, so a shift from the Seahawks’ zone-heavy scheme would serve him well. Patience will be a necessity for whichever staff ends up with a player responsible for 30 penalties – and a host of other missteps – in the last four years. There’s considerable upside to be tapped into if Woolen can harness his playmaking streak, but it might not take much to send his next arrangement sideways.
Jamel Dean, CB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29)
You might be noticing a theme by now: Cornerbacks tend to be shaky investments, particularly for any team buying high. And pursuing Dean will certainly entail paying for a player coming off several career highs.
The seven-year veteran allowed the second-lowest catch rate (43.1%) of any player with at least 50 targets last season, according to Next Gen Stats. He also posted personal bests with three interceptions and a 41.3 passer rating allowed when targeted.
But Dean, who will turn 30 in October, has been nagged by injuries in the past few years, missing at least three games in each of the last three campaigns. It also might prove difficult for him to recapture his 2025 form, let alone improve on it.
Devin Lloyd, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars (16)
It’s a good time to be on the hunt for an off-ball linebacker, with a robust set of options at the position both in free agency and the draft. That should create a buyer’s market, but Lloyd still could be poised to cash in.
The 2022 first-round pick finally put things together in a Pro Bowl campaign last year in which he recorded five interceptions. The 6-3, 235-pounder boasts the requisite athleticism to hold up in coverage and make plays as a blitzer. With a dearth of playmakers up for bidding, it’s easy to see why teams might gravitate toward him.
But it’s difficult to say with much certainty that Lloyd was a true catalyst rather than someone who benefited from an opportunistic scheme intent on creating havoc. Chasing traits here can be dangerous, and there’s no need to splurge for players who will only go so far in altering the bottom line for a defense. Lloyd isn’t Fred Warner – who is? – so teams should be wary of approaching the top of the market with a deal heavy on guarantees.
Nakobe Dean, LB, Philadelphia Eagles (53)
Between his return from a torn patellar tendon suffered in the 2024 playoffs and a hamstring injury in December, Dean was limited to just eight starts last season. That alone might be enough to give some decision-makers pause in pursuing the talented 25-year-old. But the real concern here is one of fit.
Dean makes a true difference as a blitzer, having generated four sacks and 11 pressures last season on just 27 pass-rush reps, according to Next Gen Stats. But the 6-0, 235-pound remains an uneven coverage presence and can be wild when triggering downhill against the run. Those vulnerabilities could leave him susceptible to breakdowns if not utilized properly. His ideal fit might be with the Dallas Cowboys, whose new defensive coordinator, Christian Parker, came over from Philadelphia this offseason.
Rashid Shaheed, WR, Seattle Seahawks (10)
Teams will pay a premium for big plays, no matter what form they come in. Shaheed has carved out a distinct place for himself thanks to his ability to deliver on that dynamic. Though his direct contributions to the Seahawks were sporadic after his midseason arrival via trade, he still reeled off punt- and kick-return touchdowns to underscore his game-breaking ability.
Shaheed is a true force multiplier for an offense, as his mere presence as a field-stretching threat forces defenses to approach passing attacks differently. But any potential buyer shouldn’t view him as someone who will single-handedly overhaul the explosiveness of a unit. He had just 18 catches in 12 total games (including the postseason) with the Seahawks, and his 11.6 yards-per-catch average was the lowest of his career. In a so-so market for receivers, his payout could get inflated well past a point that’s proportional to his actual value.
K’Lavon Chaisson, OLB, New England Patriots (77)
Can he be the next Haason Reddick as a former first-round edge rusher who revives his career after a rough start? Chaisson inspired some hope last season as a scrap-heap signing by the Patriots, who were his third stop in six seasons. Beyond logging a career-high 7 ½ sacks, he nearly doubled his previous career high in pressures from 29 to 54, according to Pro Football Focus.
It’s not yet clear, however, if this is a genuine resurgence or an aberration. Teams might be inclined to bet on the former, but the 6-3, 246-pounder has a feast-or-famine style given that he can stall out when bigger blockers lock onto him. He also remains a liability against the run, so earning his keep with splash plays will be essential.